The European Commission has basically confirmed the forecasts on Italy's economic growth. Now Brussels estimates that in 2016 the Italian GDP has grown by 0,9% (the forecast stopped at +9% on 0,7 November), which should be followed by a similar expansion in 2017 (the same figure released in the autumn) and +1,1% in 2018 (from +1% estimated in November). The new data, contained in the winter economic forecasts, are however the lowest in the whole European Union. Italy's growth prospects remain "stable but modest", reads the document published today in Brussels.
“In Italy, GDP growth of 0,9% is expected this year, at the same level as in 2016, and a slight increase in the estimates for 2018, supported by the low rates of interest and from one strong external demand – commented the EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Pierre Moscovici – but structural weaknesses are hampering a stronger recovery.” In its analysis of the economic situation, the EU welcomes the government's commitment to correct the trajectory of the public finances by April.
The Commission has also revised the forecasts for Italy's economic accounts. The debt-GDP it is indicated at 132,8% on 2016, 133,3% this year and 133,2% in 2018. Three months ago it was estimated at 133% of GDP on 2016 and 133,1% on 2017 and 2018.
Brussels is working on the new report on compliance with the "debt rule", expected for 22 February: "As in the previous reports - continued Moscovici - we will examine the relevant factors that could explain why, at first glance, Italy is not in compliance with the rules” of the Stability Pact. In any case, the French specified, the Commission does not intend to send "ultimatums to Italy", but to establish a "constructive dialogue" with our country.
As for the deficit-GDP, now Europe is speaking of a 2,3% in 2016, which will be followed by 2,4% this year and 2,6% in 2018. On 9 November, the EU predicted a 2,4% on 2016 and on 2017 and 2,6% on 2018.
Il structural deficit budget, a crucial item in Brussels' assessment of the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact, is estimated at 1,6% of GDP over 2016, 2% over 2017 and 2,5% over 2018. Three months ago it was indicated at 1,6%, 2,2% and 2,4% respectively.
Finally, in Italy “the low profitability of banking sector and the high burden of non-performing loans ('Npl', ed) will probably slow down the increase in credit”, writes the Commission, recalling that the survey on the supply of loans by banks in the fourth quarter of 2016 indicates that there are changes and no further improvements are expected for the first quarter of 2017 regarding corporate loans.
