Oil between 45 and 55 dollars in 2016. This is the estimate of thePetroleum Union which brought together the annual assembly in Rome, relaunching thealarm on the increase of smuggling and thefts, a phenomenon in strong escalation in 2015 and continued in the first half of this year. For Italians it is good news because the national energy bill it will be contained between 13 and 15 billion euros and therefore will remain lower than last year's 16 billion. "It is one of lowest values in the last 20 years in real terms". The entire energy bill should, however, fluctuate between 28 and 29 billion.
Limiting ourselves to fuels, according to the Unione Petrolifera, last year the drop in oil was transformed into overall savings for Italian motorists of around 8 billion euro. In the first five months of 2016, a further 3 billion euros were saved.
“Oil consumption showed slight growth in the first five months of 2016, with a 1,1% progress” over the year, reads the report released on the occasion of the annual meeting.
The association of Italian energy companies explains that “in these first months of 2016 the production surplus has shrunk significantly, due to both the slowdown in US production and a recovery in demand. This will have a bullish effect on prices especially in the second half of 2016, which are estimated for the whole year in the range of 45 and 55 dollars/barrel”.
With this fork, for 2016, Up provides a oil bill “still down: between 13 and 15 billion based on the trend of the exchange rate and the price of crude oil”.
The result also discounts “the higher outlay due to the shutdown since April of the production in Val D'Agri, whose lack of contribution to the overall balance can weigh heavily between 800 and 900 million euros”.
The investigation by the Potenza public prosecutor's office into the alleged trafficking and illicit disposal of waste prompted Eni to suspend production in Val D'agri, which is worth 75.000 barrels of oil a day.
Partly as a result of the crisis, partly as a result of energy savings, it is a fact that lhe dynamics of oil consumption has been on a downward slope for many years. In 2015 there was a modest increase of 1,3% on 2014 but it should be noted that a total of 10 billion liters of fuel were sold less than in 2005. And again: total oil consumption (vehicle, heating, bunkering , etc.) rose to 59,6 million tons last year (+3,6%) but are down by 31% compared to ten years earlier: 27 million tons remained in the field which, according to the same Unione Petrolifera, will never be recovered. It is therefore reasonable to think that a new model of consumption of energy products is establishing itself and that what we have seen so far is only the tip of a wider revolution.
