WALL STREET BRAKS. THE FALL HAS STOPPED IN ASIA
BUSINESS PLACE TRY TO REACT TO THE KIEV EFFECT
The Bear, at least for now, has stopped running. The Asian Stock Exchanges, with the exception of Shanghai, all showed positive signs starting from Tokyo +0,6% one hour after the closing. But above all this morning the European price lists, including Piazza Affari, started the day well.
The Ukrainian crisis is far from over, but the markets prefer to wait for diplomacy to run its course after the denial of the Russian ultimatum. Meanwhile, expectations are growing for the congress for the National Party Congress which will begin tomorrow in Beijing: expectations for the reforms are strong.
The yen also slowed, but gold and oil remained on the upside, pushed up by geopolitical tensions.
The yellow metal rose 2% yesterday to 1354 dollars an ounce, the highest in the last five months.
The price of oil has soared: the WTI future trades at 104,9 dollars a barrel, up by 2,2%.
The prices of corn +4% and wheat +6% also rose: Ukraine is one of the major grain exporters.
The winds of war blowing from the crisis have also weighed on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones index fell 0,94%, the S&P 500 0,88% and the Nasdaq 0,72%.
Volatility skyrockets: the Vix index jumps by around 18%.
But the data on the manufacturing ISM and on personal consumption expenditures has come to contain the decline, better than expected. The Ukrainian crisis is moreover a good opportunity to monetize earnings in a very speculative market as demonstrated by the statistics on margin debt, i.e. the money borrowed to buy shares, at the Nyse it is equal to 451 billion dollars, up by 20 % over a year earlier and above the 2007 highs ($381 billion).
The stock exchanges most affected were, as expected, the European ones.
In Europe, Frankfurt lost 3,4% and Paris 2,7%. Less heavy, thanks to the rebound of mining stocks, the decline in London -1,5%.
The Moscow Stock Exchange lost 12,1% and the ruble reached new lows against the dollar.
The shares of Russian companies listed in the USA are heavy: on Wall Street: Mtb falls by around 9%, Vimpelcom (owner of Wind) by around 10% and Yandex by 15%
The only positive place was Athens, which gained 1,27%.
In Milan, the Ftse Mib index lost 3,3%, thus returning to the levels of mid-February.
The BTPs are holding up well the impact of the crisis: the 3,445-year yield fell to 2005%, the lowest since 3,551 (against 1,55% for the Spanish 188-year). The race for safe havens has pushed money towards the Bund, so that the yield on the German ten-year bond falls by basis points to 195%. The BTP-Bund spread therefore widens by three basis points to XNUMX (XNUMX bp the Bono/Bund spread).
UNICREDIT AND BUZZI VICTIMS OF THE CRISIS
The companies most involved in relations with Ukraine are under fire.
Unicredit shoulder -6,2%: Kiev is worth 0,5% of the group's total loans, the second in Europe in terms of exposure to Ukraine behind and Raiffeisen (-8,5%) worst blue chip on the Vienna Stock Exchange.
The Italian bank will present the guidelines of the new strategic plan for the years 2013-2018 on Tuesday 11 March in conjunction with the publication of the results for the 2013 financial year and the fourth quarter of the year.
Intesa went better -4,01%) which has already announced the sale of the subsidiary in the former Soviet country.
Target practice also on Buzzi -8%, worst blue chip: 15% of the cement company's Ebitda is generated in the Russia-Ukraine area.
Indesit was also in the red, down 4,1%. The household appliances group generates 3,5% of its turnover in Ukraine and 20% in Russia.
BANKS UNDER FIRE. STOP THE POPULAR BANK
Banking stocks led the declines: the index fell by 4,69%. In Europe, the EuroStoxx index of banks dropped 3,75%, the worst performance since last August.
Banco Popolare closes in the red -2,13%, after going against the trend for most of the session thanks to the promotion and Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank, target price at 2 euros from 1,4. The 1,5 billion euro capital increase will start on March 31st and end on April 17th.
Ubi Banca lost 5%.
Among the insurance companies, Unipol Sai lost 6,1% even if the bank has no particular exposures in Ukraine. Generali is holding up better -3,31%, despite the greater exposure to the East.
Stocks under management are heavy: Mediolanum -2,84%, Azimut -3,22%.
CAR
The signs of recovery of the car industry are strengthening: +8,6% registrations in February. Fiat's performance was slightly lower -2,4%, with sales up by 7%. March, underlines the Lingotto, presents itself under good auspices, thanks to the eco-incentive campaign on methane and LPG vehicles.
The best news, however, came from overseas: Chrysler's US sales grew by 11% in February, the best February since 2007 and the forty-seventh consecutive month of growth. A success in contrast with the braking of GM, Ford, Toyota and Volkswagen, down due to the cold.
A RED-TINTED LIST
In luxury, Tod's holds, losing only 1,37%.
In sharp decline, among the blue chips, Yoox -4,4%.
Moncler – 2,26%. Entry into the FTSE Mib index is probable, on the occasion of the review of the basket on 23 March at the expense of Ansaldo STS.
Enel lost 3,6%.
Telecom Italia 3,5%.
Cementir -10,90% , due to the great need for energy affected by the increase in oil prices. The fall of Saras -7,03% can be attributed to the same reason
Profits were taken on some of the stocks that had seen major accelerations in recent sessions.
Tiscali -14,48%, Class Editori -11,31% and Banca Profilo -9,03% deflated.
TERNA AND ANSALDO STS LIMIT THE DAMAGES. SOROS LAUNCHES IGD
Classic defensive stocks limited the damage: Terna -1,35%, and Snam -1,79%.
Ansaldo Sts also holds -1,33%.
Igd rises by +0,44% after the announcement that a fund managed by George Soros has taken over 5% of the capital of the company that owns the commercial properties owned by the coop.
The La Doria share closed decisively against the stock market trend: +2,5% at 5,21 euros. Banca IMI has decided to confirm the Buy recommendation and to raise the target price from 4,71 to 7,45 euro.
Trevi down -2,5% despite the announcement of new orders in Ohio and Wyoming. Since the beginning of 2014, the stock has gained 23%, 2013 closed with a gain of 55%.
