The Brexit catchphrase continues. Yet another field day has begun for the UK. On the evening of 10 April, the European Council will have to decide whether to grant Theresa May another postponement of her exit date or to accompany her to the door, not too kindly, making the No Deal specter a reality.
If among the 27 leaders of the Member States of the European Union they were the "gut" or the hard line of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the second option would be the more likely. But considering that a no-deal divorce would seriously damage not only London, but also all other EU countries, it now seems certain that the Council will decide to be "lenient" again, granting a postponement of Brexit.
As happened in the past, however, there will be stakes and the real game will be about the duration. The British premier – with the approval of the House of Commons of which she is now hostage – has asked to extend article 50 until 30 June. European leaders will respond spades, proposing a long but flexible postponement.
According to rumors, the Union proposal will work more or less like this: exit at the end of 2019 or in the first months of 2020. However, if the United Kingdom manages to find an agreement sooner, it will be able to leave the Union on the first day of the month following the ok from Brussels, which still has the last word. This is the summary of what was foreseen in the draft conclusions of the extraordinary summit on Brexit, published by Ansa. “The European Council – reads the document – agrees on an extension to allow the agreement to be ratified”. “If the agreement is ratified before the date”, the separation “will take place on the first day of the following month”, the text continues. At the moment the text does not contain any precise date which will be established by the EU council in the evening.
So what do we do with the European elections at the end of May? The United Kingdom will take part in the vote, pledging, however, not to "talk" to long-term decisions regarding the European Union, unless London decides at the last minute to blow up Brexit. In this case it will already have its parliamentarians in Strasbourg and will be able to participate in the political choices of the Union.
In the meantime, on the domestic front, May will have to continue the negotiations - so far not very fruitful - with the Labor party to try to find the longed-for agreement on Brexit, or try again to regroup the Conservatives to start over. Enterprises that, to date, seem titanic.
