After the lack of agreement with Kim, Donald Trump is trying to console himself with a "historic peace" with Beijing anticipated on TV by Larry Kudlow, the president's economic adviser, for now busy avoiding the torpedoes launched by his former lawyer Michael Cohen.
Bloomberg wrote tonight that by mid-March Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet to sign the peace agreement on trade that the two powers' sherpas are already putting on paper. Wall Street takes note of the developments in the game without showing great enthusiasm, unlike the Chinese markets.
But the different attitude can be explained above all by the snapshot of the real economy: according to the latest data, Beijing's economy is recovering. Wall Street, on the other hand, while satisfied with the trend in US GDP (+2,9% in the fourth quarter, just below the target set by Trump) is revising downwards its forecasts for company accounts: profits for the quarter will drop, according to the latest estimates of 1,1%. Corporate America is struggling to support the growth drugged a year ago by tax incentives.
Meanwhile, Europe awaits, without too many illusions, this morning's PMI data to measure the seriousness of the slowdown in manufacturing: the good performance of the bond markets is proof that the markets are confident in new expansionary measures from the ECB at its meeting on 7 March.
MORGAN STANLEY PROMOTES SHANGHAI STOCKS
The Csi 300 index of Shanghai (+0,5%) closes a triumphant week with a new increase +4,5%. In addition to the indications on the negotiation on duties, the market has been driven by the news of the Morgan Stanley indices. The broker has decided to increase the weight of the "A" shares in its international indices, multiplying the weight of Chinese shares in its baskets by four international. The entry will take place gradually in May and August.
The Caixin PMI index on expectations of purchasing managers of manufacturing companies rose much more than expected in February, reaching 49,9, one step away from the threshold that separates contraction and expansion.
The other Asian price lists were also positive. Tokyo's Nikkei is starting to close up 1,1%. Hong Kong is slightly down, in Seoul the stock exchange is closed. India's BSE Sensex is up 0,5%, the Jakarta Composite up 0,3%.
The yen, the area's safe haven currency, falls: the dollar-yen cross rises for the third consecutive day to 111,7 (highest since mid-December). The Euro appreciates at 1,1385 against the dollar +0,1% and against the pound at 0,857.
SKIP BUYING CELGENE, SEATTLE NO AT AMAZON
Wall Street was weak yesterday: the main indices lost between 0,27 and 0,29%. The thud of Celgene (-8,6%) was significant after an activist fund sided against the purchase by Bristol Myers (+1,4%).
New setback for Jeff Bezos. After New York's no to the new Amazon headquarters, Seattle also said no to the mega investment of the e-commerce giant: there was no agreement on tax incentives.
BUSINESS CENTER ON THE FIFTH DAY OF RAISE
Piazza Affari (+0,78% at 20.659,49 points) ended February with a crescendo, with the fifth consecutive session with a plus sign. During February, the index recorded a rise of 4,7%. Since the beginning of the year with a 12,7% increase, it is the best in Europe.
The other European stock markets were positive but less brilliant: Cac40 in Paris +0,4%, Dax in Frankfurt +0,35, Madrid +0,67%.
BREXIT, CORBEYN WANTS REFERENDUM BIS
London is also down (-0,5%). Labor will back the idea of a new Brexit referendum after the parliament rejected the proposal for a customs union with the European Union. This was stated by party leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Another positive session for the Italian bond. The Italian 2,76-year yield fell to 2,79% (from 258%). The drop in the spread to 264 from XNUMX was even more significant due to the greater pressure on the German paper after the American data.
THE SPREAD GOES DOWN, BUT MOODY'S RAISES THE ALARM
Operators' attention is already focused on the ECB council meeting on 7 March which will evaluate expansionary countermeasures to respond to signs of a cooling down of the economy, including the launch of new LTTRO operations intended not only for banks.
The alarm signals, increasingly insistent on the prospects of the Bel Paese, act as a counterweight to the positive trend of the debt and of the Italian banks. Yesterday Moody's diagnosis arrived: This time it's up to Moody's to foresee a not very rosy future, indeed rather a gloomy one, for the country. the rating agency estimates an increase in GDP of only 0,4% for the current year and 0,8% for 2020. Analysts speculate that political uncertainty which "will remain high throughout the year in course”, with the consequent risk of “much weaker growth than our estimates”.
FLAME OF SAIPEM, OFFER OF ENI IN THE NORTH SEA
Year-end accounts and banks were the ingredients of the positive performance of the Milan Stock Exchange.
Saipem surge (+4,77%) on trading volumes more than double the monthly average Morgan Stanley strengthens its Overweight rating with a target price of 6 euros. American analysts expect a rise in prices after the 2018 accounts and the prospects indicated by management beat expectations. Positive judgment also from Equita analysts who confirm the Buy recommendation and the target of 5,1 euros.
Eni is lagging behind (-0,37%): the six-legged dog together with the private equity fund HitecVision is preparing an offer, which could reach 2 billion dollars for Chrysaor, which holds the group's oil and gas assets Use ConocoPhillip in the North Sea.
Great applause also for Geox's accounts (+17,22%), after the promotion of Kepler Cheuvreux to 'buy' from hold . Mediobanca Securities raised the target price to 1,44 euro from 1,3 euro, confirming the rating at neutral,
BNCHE AND MANAGED SAVINGS ON SCUDI
More than all bank stocks and asset management stocks contributed to supporting Piazza Affari.
Bper Banca (+2,71%) celebrates the new industrial plan which expects to reach 2021 million euros in net profit in 450, corresponding to an average annual growth of 7,1%. The business plan is based on cost cutting (-2,6% annual average) and maintenance of revenues at current levels.
Unicredit went up (+2,15%) on which Morgan Stanley left the overweight rating unchanged, raising the target price to 16 euros from 15,3. Ubi Banca +2.06% and Intesa San Paolo +1,76%.
Among the asset managers, Azimut (+4%) and Anima (+3,5%) did well: Banca Imi, Equita Sim and Banca Akros all confirmed the buy rating after the publication of the 2018 accounts. FinecoBank goes into orbit (+6% ).
THUD OF JUVENTUS: -16% FROM THE NIGHT IN MADRID
The most negative note concerns the slump in Juventus, -4,13% after announcing a first half year with sharply declining profits (7,5 million against 43,3 in the same period of the previous year) and the forecast of a in red. Since the wicked night in Madrid, the stock has lost 16%.
The uncertainties surrounding the US-China trade negotiations penalize some stocks more exposed to the issue such as Stmicroelectronics (-2,18%).
In the rest of the list, it is worth mentioning Bialetti (+11,73%). The company signed the debt restructuring agreements and the issue of the second non-convertible "interim" bond loan was approved for 10 million.
