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Greece, urgent debt restructuring. Europe is uncertain, the rating drops again

The agency rating (Caa1) implies a 50% probability of default within the next 5 years. The issue of Greek bonds divides Germany and the ECB.

“Debt out of control”. The verdict (outlook) of the Moody's agency is implacable: last night it cut down Greece's rating, causing it to regress by a good three steps, from B1 to Caa1. The negative outlook indicates the peremptory need for a solid and rigorous debt restructuring. The response came while, in Vienna, Athens was negotiating with Europe for the amount of aid: in particular, there would be a further package of 60 billion (after the 110 billion already allocated), to be spread over the two-year period 2012-2013.

And the differences between Germany and the ECB continue on the role of private investors in rescuing Greece. In particular, Greek bondholders would be asked to postpone collections, a measure which is opposed by the ECB. In short, if the patient gets worse, the doctors do not agree on the type of therapy. A climate of uncertainty that leaves free rein to the judgments of the rating agencies, similar more than anything else to vultures attracted by the smell of the corpse.

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