Two quick conversations that give the pulse of the situation of what is expected for the restart of September in the heart of the industrial manufacturing e crafts of the VenetoThe first: we are in the area between Bassano of Grappa e Citadel, one of the most vital hubs of the Venetian economy, and it is a pourparler with a furniture maker which produces medium- to high-end kitchens. The message is clear: it's almost certain that in September, after the usual two-week closure, the company will open with a gap in its order book. The company is saved by demand from abroad (it doesn't work with the US), while demand from the local market is weak or very weak. The key: navigate by sight and see if this unprecedented climate of uncertainty, which affects even those who have no financial implications, will fade after the holidays. Trump's tariffs.
The second pourparler comes from the sector of mechanics: we are in the area between Marostica e Bassano, along the new Pedemontana highway, the arterial road that cuts across the Veneto region from Montecchio Maggiore (Vicenza) to Spresiano (Treviso). With a dead calm between July and early August, we're facing a recovery from the holidays with the nightmare of continuing this "great calm" on the order front, says an entrepreneur who works in the small automotive components supply chain.
Confindustria Vicenza: data decline for the second quarter of 2025
A situation of industrial weakness also depicted by the latest survey of Confindustria Vicenza, With USEFULL provided by 168th economic survey referring to the second quarter of 2025. The Vicenza manufacturing sector records a decline in industrial production equal to 3,2%, a more marked decline compared to the previous quarter (-0,7%). In qualitative terms, only 23% of companies report an increase in production levels (33% in the previous quarter), while 39% report a contraction (34% in the first quarter of the year). Almost half of entrepreneurs (42%) judge the capacity productive significantly below expectationsThe dynamics of the orders This reflects a situation of weakness and instability: 41% of companies report a decline in orders, 24% an increase, and 35% stability, with a negative opinion balance of -17 (compared to -5 in the previous quarter). The guaranteed working period exceeds three months for 27% of companies, while for 73% it reaches three months.
"The data requires us to reflect deeply. While on the one hand we observe a worrying slowdown in domestic and European demand, on the other, exports to non-EU countries, albeit with a limited increase, remind us that our companies' ability to compete globally remains solid. This means that our production model retains strength and credibility abroad, but must be supported with appropriate tools," he commented. Barbara Beltrame Giacomello, who has been at the helm of Confindustria Vicenza for a few months.
Domestic and foreign market trends in the Vicenza area
At the provincial level, on the internal market, the sales in fact, they fell by 1,2%, compared to the +1,3% recorded in the previous quarter. While the exports to the EU area show a decrease of 2,6% (compared to +1,1% at the beginning of the year). The only positive aspect is given by sales to the countries extra-EU which recorded a modest increase of 1,2%. The next quarters, in terms of production and exports, could however suffer a further setback also by virtue of a simple statistical effect: theanticipation of exports to the United States which occurred in part especially in the first months of 2025 (the so-called front loading to circumvent the entry into force of the new duties) could make the percentages of growth or decrease in exports even more marked in the next observation periods.
US tariffs and their impact on the Veneto manufacturing sector
The real effect of the administration's new trade policy Trump, despite all the attempts to weigh and predict the outcome of the introduction of higher tariffs in the American market, is nevertheless the first element that contributes to the "great calm" in orders that Veneto companies are seeing in the coming weeks. "It is a paradigm shift, what is coming from the United States with the introduction of 15% basic export duty byEuropean UnionA tariff that, while half the amount threatened in Trump's letter, is more than triple the previous average tariffs set at 4,8%, and without reciprocity. The risk, combined with a dollar devalued by 12-13% since the beginning of the year, is not only a severe impact on trade dynamics and our ability to penetrate a strategic market like the American one: €22,6 billion in reduced Italian exports to the US according to the Confindustria Research Center. The economic and social stability of the Italian and European manufacturing sectors, and of the Union itself, is at stake here if it fails to react with much greater determination in asserting its economic strength in the face of the trade policies of the United States and China,” he observes. Paola Carron, president of Confindustria Veneto Est.
Tourism and family income: new elements of uncertainty
Meanwhile, the Italian economic situation is also being made even more uncertain by the and the not so brilliant numbers coming from hotels, beaches and reservations. The final data on attendance, takings and turnover are not yet available but as far as the families the issue of the continuous erosion of disposable income that has occurred in recent years seems to have come to a head.
