Salt but without fireworks there Istanbul Stock Exchange, accustomed not since yesterday to the Turkish coups of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as skilled as he is unpredictable. The last twist was the green light for Türkiye to join Sweden in NATO, the Atlantic alliance. A completely unexpected move after a year of apparently sterile negotiations on the political asylum in Stockholm of Kurdish militants believed to be terrorists by Ankara. A turning point, moreover, which came a few days after the public burning of a Koran judged a provocation by the Turkish president.
But, on closer inspection, there is method in the umpteenth turning point of the "sultan" who, having passed the most difficult electoral test of his long political career a few months ago, started yet another 180 degree course correction, a change that goes from monetary and economic policy to the management of foreign policy, the real trump card of the Sultan who knows he is indispensable for Europe which continues to pay rich fees in order to avoid the invasion of other millions of emigrants . But important, Erdogan, it is also for Russia which has the only outlet for cereals and oligarchs in the parts of the Bosphorus. And also for Washington, which has paid a high price for Ankara's ambitions.
Türkiye and Sweden in NATO: the price of the green light for Biden
In order to get Erdogan's yes, Biden agreed to give in 40 F16 fighter aircraft plus ensure the overhaul of 79 other Turkish Air Force aircraft. A 20 billion dollar operation which will serve to strengthen Turkey's position in NATO, both vis-à-vis Greece (consoled with the sale of a small fleet of F 35s) and on the North African chessboard. It was not an easy choice because a large section of the American Congress distrusts Erdogan, who has turned to Russia to acquire the S 400 defensive system. But how can one ignore the only window of dialogue with Putin? Only Erdogan has been able to guarantee an agreement for the grain circulation from the Russian/Ukrainian plains to African customers, otherwise destined for starvation. And only he, defying the wrath of Putin (now weakened) was able to guarantee the return home of the fighters of the Azov division, a symbol for Ukraine. A public challenge to the Kremlin just to show that Russia needs the Sultan and not vice versa.
Sultan Erdogan and the turnaround on the Turkish lira
But, beyond the diplomatic ability of Erdogan, an old associate of Silvio Berlusconi who witnessed his son's wedding, it is worth emphasizing the industrial and technological thrust of one of the countries which, by tradition, have the most a long history of relations with the Italian economy. After a long and stubborn refusal to raise rates, a policy that cost the country triple-digit inflation, after the elections Erdogan carried out a epochal turning point appointing to head the central bank Hafize Hayek Ergan, a Goldman Sachs school manager who has completely overturned the strategies to defend the Turkish lira. The effects were seen immediately, both on the foreign exchange market and on bonds.
Türkiye: drones listed on the Nasdaq
No less important, also on a political level, an underestimated signal for now. Last July 1, through a Spac, the Turkish Marti Technologies has landed on the Nasdaq, confirming that the new Turkey is once again looking to the West to finance its growth.
To demonstrate the technological efficiency of the made in Turkey it is enough to underline the enormous strategic value of the the Bayraktar drone developed by Baykar Tech, It is the first all-Turkish built hunter-killer UAV for long-range and medium-altitude surveillance, a weapon used in Donbass.
And what about the Koç family, always referred to as the Lambs of Turkey, either for their long friendship with the lawyer, or for the historical ties between Fiat and the Anatolian manufacturer (still tied to Stellantis today)? Things have changed. The Koç, in fact, have landed in Italy. It's up to them to try the Whirlpool rescue.
