The truce in Iran was exactly what was needed to finally give financial markets a break. It's not yet clear how credible and effective this ceasefire will be, but for the stock markets, the important thing is that in the meantime the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened to transit, or at least that the reopening has been announced, even though the Israeli offensive in Lebanon threatens to ruin everything. Oil prices had already plummeted yesterday following Donald Trump's announcement on Social Truth, but today WTI Crude Oil and Brent crude oil are down 15% and 13% respectively. returning well below the psychological threshold of 100 dollars a barrel which had so worried markets around the world.
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Today both qualities of crude oil are trading around 95 dollars a barrel, and also Gas prices drop by a good 14%, falling below 50 euros/MWh, in the 45 euro/MWh range as this article is being written. Safe-haven commodities, however, are back in fashion: in today's session, gold returned to its highest level since March 19, approaching $4.800 an ounce, and silver performed even better in percentage terms, gaining 3% to $75 an ounce. However, it should be remembered that since the war with Iran began on February 28, the value of gold has fallen by more than 8%.
The euro strengthens against the dollar, as Bitcoin returns above $70.000.
This scenario allows stock markets around the world to achieve a historic rebound: the Nikkei index in Tokyo opened the scoring with +5,4%, followed by Europe: Milan +3,7%, Paris +4,5%, Frankfurt +4,7%, London +2,4%The Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 4,6% today. Naturally, Wall Street is also off to a strong start: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2,3%, the Nasdaq Composite Index is up 2,7%, and the S&P 500 is up 2%. The currency market is picking up steam again: The euro strengthens significantly against the US dollar, bringing the exchange rate close to 1,17, and Bitcoin once again crossed the $71.000 threshold and briefly touched $73.000, the highest since mid-March.
Piazza Affari reaches 47.000 points, the spread falls to mid-March levels.
As a result, tensions on government bonds are easing: today the BTP-Bund spread is reduced by a double-digit percentage and returns below 80 basis points, around 77 points, as it was in mid-March. The yield on our benchmark 10-year BTP falls to 3,70%. The session for Piazza Affari is triumphant, driven by industry with Prysmian +9,8% and Buzzi +8%, but above all by the strong return of the banks: Unicredit +7,9%, MPS +7%, Mediobanca +6,8%, Finecobank +6,5%, Intesa Sanpaolo +5%. Also paying attention to the luxury sector, which now has the prospect of a return to normality in a key market like the Middle East: Brunello Cucinelli +8,2%, Moncler +6,6%. Only a handful of stocks bucked the trend, and they are those in the energy sector. penalized by the oil and gas crash: Eni -5,6%, Tenaris -1,1%, Snam -0,5%.
Tech stocks perform well on Wall Street, and the travel sector regains momentum.
The festive atmosphere obviously also involves Wall Street. On the Nasdaq, as always Technology stocks are moving large volumes, all in positive territory todayMicron +7%, Nvidia +2%, Microsoft +1,4%, Apple +1,6%, Amazon +3,3%, Alphabet +3,6%, Meta +3%, Intel +8%. The travel sector is recovering, thanks to the prospect of peace that means a return to normality for tourism and available fuel for airplanes. Airbnb +6,9%, Booking +5,5%, Marriott +5,2%.
