Unicredit slow down the race on Bpm bank and takes time. According to The messenger the final decision on the offer will not come before mid-late June, despite the extraordinary meeting brought forward to March 27 to approve the capital increase to service theOps on the Bank. Andrea Orcel, during his recent roman mission, would have implied that the bank wants to first evaluate three key factors: theoutcome of Banco Bpm's takeover bid on Anima (who just got Green light from Bankitalia), the ECB gives green light to Danish Compromise and Bpm first quarter results, expected on May 7. The market, meanwhile, assigns to the Milanese bank a value higher by about 1 billion compared to the initial exchange rate of Unicredit. A gap that could push Orcel to review the proposal or even to abandon it, especially after the increase in the price of the takeover bid on Anima from 6,2 to 7 euros decided by the assembly in Piazza Meda.
Meanwhile, the title Unicredit run to Business Square (+5,65%) to 52,58 euros per share.
Unicredit aims at Generali?
In parallel, Orcel is reportedly strengthening Unicredit's position in Generali. According to Il Sole 24 Ore , the aim is to rise from the current 5,3% (4,2% of voting rights) to a threshold close to 10% in view of the meeting for the renewal of the board, scheduled for May 8 but which could be brought forward to April. The bank has not yet taken an official position, but analysts believe this is a strategic move to have a more influential role in the governance of the Trieste-based company.
While Unicredit is taking its time on Banco Bpm, and perhaps thinking of growing in Leone, it is also monitoring other dossiers, including the Golden Power on which he has initiated the first contacts with the government, even if relations remain tense according to Milano Finanza, and the evolution of the sMps's decline on Mediobanca.
Golden Power, Commerz and Mediobanca: the other open dossiers
During his trip to Rome, the top manager also started a first round of meetings on the procedure Golden Power, reassuring the government on branches, employees and jobs, compatible with the Antitrust rules. The process lasts 45 days plus a possible extension of 15 days, so it could take up to May 10 before a final decision.
Also on the table are Unicredit's ambitions in Germany, with the possible Commerzbank takeover, and the moves of Mps on Mediobanca, which in turn are intertwined with the delicate issue of the renewal of the top management of Generali. The Siena-Milan-Trieste triangle is further complicated by the possible joint action of Delfin and Caltagirone on Mediobanca, which could push the Lion of Trieste and Piazzetta Cuccia to present exposed to Consob, Bankitalia e ECB to demonstrate a concerted action. If the hypothesis were accepted, Delfin and Caltagirone could be forced to launch a takeover bid on Mediobanca or to freeze the excess shares.
Orcel's strategy remains focused on caution: no acceleration on the Banco without certainties, while on the Generali front it seems determined to consolidate its position.
