Piazza Affari closes today up 0,21% and consolidated above 43 basis points (at 43.222) despite the collapse of MPS (-4,56%) and Mediobanca (-1,9%). A wave of selling in the two banking stocks was triggered by the news that entrepreneur Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, Delfin Chairman Francesco Milleri, and Siena CEO Luigi Lovaglio are under investigation for stock market manipulation and obstruction of supervisory functions as part of an investigation into Monte Paschi's successful takeover of Piazzetta Cuccia. The Siena-based bank was also subjected to a search.
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Aside from this spicy story the climate on the European markets today was positive, but tepid, lacking the daily inspiration that comes from Wall Street, which is closed for Thanksgiving, while overseas trading will be limited to mid-day tomorrow to make way for Black Friday shopping. At the end of the day, Frankfurt was up 0,33%; London was flat (+0,01%), much like Paris (+0,05%) and Madrid (-0,01%). Amsterdam lost 0,41%.
Euro-dollar flat; ECB debates hawks and doves over future interest rates
On the foreign exchange market The euro-dollar exchange rate appears flat, just shy of 1,16The market appears increasingly convinced that the US central bank will cut rates by a quarter point in December, while the minutes of the latest ECB meeting reveal differing positions within the European board. The debate is between hawks and doves: the former believe the cycle of cuts is over given the stable economic outlook; the latter emphasize the importance of remaining ready for further intervention if downside risks increase or if inflation remains persistently below target. The document reiterates the "full optionality" strategy, confirming that the ECB will maintain the necessary flexibility to react to macroeconomic data, pending the new December forecasts.
Among commodities, there is some profit-taking on gold, with spot gold currently trading at $4158,52 an ounce (-0,13%). Oil is timidly positiveFollowing recent losses and awaiting developments in the peace talks in Ukraine, Texas crude oil is trading at $58,85 a barrel (+0,39%); Brent crude is trading at $62,63 a barrel (+0,14%). In the volatile world of digital currencies, bitcoin is recovering some of its lost ground, trading at $90.962, up 4,5%.
Piazza Affari and the difficult banking risk
The Italian banking game is once again tinged with yellow today with the news that three major players are under investigation ofMPS's takeover bid for Mediobanca (Caltagirone, Milleri, and Lovaglio) It occurred between January and October. How the story will end and what the consequences will be, we will see in the next episodes. Meanwhile, it turns out that, according to investigations by the Guardia di Finanza's Special Currency Unit, coordinated by Milan Deputy Chief of Police Roberto Pellicano and prosecutors Luca Gaglio and Giovanni Polizzi, the three suspects allegedly colluded in an irregular manner, with agreements not disclosed to the market, to carry out the takeover. Hence the accusations of market manipulation and obstruction of the supervisory authorities of Consob and the ECB.
During the day we then talked about another great attempt (this time failed) to climb: that of Unicredit (+0,45%) on Banco Bpm (colorless). On this point the CEO returned today Andrea Orcel, from Piazza Gae Aulenti. Before the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry, the banker rejected the idea that UniCredit represents a threat to national security, especially since the bank holds more Italian government bonds than any other. The Golden Power was therefore decided "on the basis of incorrect information," and UniCredit is waging a legal battle with the government precisely to refute the notion that it poses a threat to national security. From an industrial perspective, the complementarity between the two banks would have generated significant benefits for everyone, but for UniCredit, this is now a "closed chapter," because the shareholder structure of Piazza Gae Aulenti "has changed. We note from the outside that there is a shareholder who de facto has relative control, and therefore the ability to evaluate a transaction in this situation and at their value relative to us makes it no longer attractive."
Moving on to other blue chips on the Milan Stock Exchange: Campari is at the top today +3,16%. Offering insights into the stock was the optimism of French competitor Rémy Cointreau (+3,93% in Paris), which, after a difficult six-month period, sees the beginning of a "new era" and expects a return to growth in the second half. Lottomatica closed its third consecutive session with gains, +2,89%, buoyed by speculation about the possible acquisition of Evoke Italia, which controls approximately 6% of the Italian online market and could be put up for sale. Conversely, shares of its parent company, Evoke, tumbled in London (-4,09%), after withdrawing its medium-term guidance and announcing a hit to profits and thousands of job cuts due to the UK government's online gambling tax hikes.
In Milan, Azimut continues to shine, with a +2,56% gain. Leonardo is also doing well, with +1,36%. on the day of the presentation of the 'Michelangelo Dome' project This could offer fresh insights after the recent correction. Enel is gaining 0,79% after JP Morgan raised its target price to 9,7 euros from 8,3 euros. Ferrari is revving up 1,47% after JP Morgan raised its target price to $457 from 394 euros.
Stable spreads
The spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration remains stable, at 72 basis points, while the yield on Italian bonds is at 3,4%.
