Donald Trump puts pause, at least for the moment, the hypothesis of a military escalation against IranBehind the American president's choice there would not be a change in diplomatic strategy, but a strictly military evaluation: the risk of exhaust the already limited stocks of Patriot interceptors and other air defense munitions used to protect U.S. bases in the Middle East.
According to what reported by New York Times, during a meeting at the White House last Friday the main national security advisers illustrated to the US president the critical issues linked to the reserves of weaponryThe alarm was raised by the general Dan Caine, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who reportedly warned the president that a new large-scale offensive against Tehran, while militarily sustainable, would risk “dangerously” reducing the defensive capabilities of the American Central Command (CENTCOM) in the area.
From Patriots to Energy: Trump's Fears of an Uncontrolled Conflict in the Middle East
The issue of Patriot stockpiles would be just one of the elements being evaluated by the American administration. According to the NYT, Trump and his advisers also fear a possible widening of the conflict in the Middle East, the risk of a weakening of the Gulf allies, exposed to possible Iranian retaliation, and the global economic consequences linked to a new energy crisis, with possible repercussions on fuel prices and migration flows.
Also the CNN He confirmed that strong doubts arose at the summit about the advisability of continuing the bombing. Among the most cautious was the vice president. JD Vance who, together with General Caine, reportedly expressed concern not only about the rapid depletion of ammunition stocks, but also about the risk that a new offensive could trigger a domino effect in the region. It is unclear whether these fears were precisely what convinced Trump to suspend the military campaign, but for two nights now Centcom operations result in “standby“, according to a Department of Defense source cited by the broadcaster.
Meanwhile, the White House has reiterated the president's position. The communications director Steven Cheung He explained that Trump continues to prefer a diplomatic solution, while keeping “all options open” in the event that Iran continues its activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against US allies.
Iran warns Washington: "The war will spread."
Meanwhile, a new warning to the United States comes from Tehran. The Iranian army spokesman, Mohammad Akraminia, declared that a possible return of the raids Americans would cause a extension geographical of the conflitto.
“If the Americans fall into the Zionist trap once again and continue the war, especially with air strikes, the conflict will expand further,” he said on state television, in a clear reference to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington.
The Pasdaran also raise the tone against the allies of the United Statesi. The spokesman of the Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Mohebi, warned that UK, Gulf countries or other states that were to support Washington in the war could become “goals legitimate” for Tehran. The accusation concerns in particular the possible use of British bases by American B-1 bombers in operations against Iran.
On the military claims front, the Pasdaran also claimed to have 11 US fighters and helicopters destroyed during the fighting of the last few weeks and of having provoked the death of over 200 American soldiers. Statements that, at the moment, have not found independent confirmation nor from Washington.
Hormuz remains the hottest front, but traffic from Qatar resumes
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be the main point of tension. Centcom has announced that the American naval blockade remains fully operatingAs of July 25, 12 commercial vessels bound for Iran have been diverted, two of which were stopped after ignoring warnings and two others boarded for inspection. Washington assures that its forces remain "vigilant, focused, and ready."
Tehran's version is the opposite: Pasdaran they claim to have six boats blocked on “unauthorized routes,” forcing them to stop after warning shots.
On the diplomatic front, however, timid signs of dialogue are emerging. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, spoke of “progress” in talks with Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, aimed at ensuring the safety of navigation without changing the current transit regime.
A sign of partial easing also comes from Qatar, which announced the full resumption of maritime traffic following the restrictions introduced two weeks ago with the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran.
Tehran accuses Kiev of attacking a ship in the Caspian Sea
Meanwhile, a new diplomatic front is also opening up. Iran accuses Ukraine of attacking an Iranian merchant ship since Caspian Sea, resulting in the death of one sailor and wounding another. Tehran has called for condemnation from the UN and the European Union, claiming that Kiev has claimed responsibility for the operation, a claim that has not yet been confirmed by independent sources.
