“The liquidity is there, please. But it is not written anywhere that it must necessarily be invested. On the eve of a summer that can reserve nasty surprises, after a challenging rally and an intense season of capital increases, it doesn't surprise me that many prefer to remain liquid for now”. This is how Gianluca Verzelli, deputy central manager of Banca Akros, one of the most prudent and attentive long-time navigators of Piazza Affari sees it. Proving him right is the behavior of the major international managers, who have sent Rottapharm towards safe havens (yen, German Bund and US Bond), as well as the attitude of institutional investors who, after the indigestion of freshmen in the first part of 2014 , disdained Riiapharm's offer, forced to postpone the IPO and caused Fincantieri's half-flop.
Already, after a glittering first six months, the Stock Exchange has changed pace: to blame, among other things, for the underlying geopolitical tensions (Middle East and Ukraine), even more for the lack of recovery of the Euroland economy. And so, under the apparent calm, the outbreaks of crisis multiply, the last case being the default risk of Banco Espirito Santo. And retail, which also responded positively in the case of Fincantieri, is already retreating. “I hope not – explains Paolo Balice, president of AIAF – because the contribution of savers is essential to reduce the volatility of our price list. A very important game is being played in recent months: either the price list will be strengthened, thanks to new quotations, the formation of intermediaries and also greater attention to medium and small stocks, or we will not achieve the goal of making the price list less bank-centric ”.
In the meantime, however, there are many factors that advise prudence, as explained by Antonio Tognoli, vice president of Integrae Sim, one of the companies most engaged in the role of talent scout for new proposals for Piazza Affari. “There are several factors that have changed the picture compared to the first half. First of all, the Fed has kicked off, albeit with great caution, the process that will lead to raising rates as early as 2015. In this perspective, the large American investors who have contributed to the rise in the European stock exchanges are starting to repatriate the funds, which they will serve to fill the central bank's missed purchases. In Europe, meanwhile, prices are not recovering, a bad sign for the economy. “In Italy it hovers around half a percentage point but the German situation has more effect on me: inflation does not rise above 1 percent, very far from the ECB's target”.
In this context, it is the situation of the industry that depresses the price lists. "The most negative data are the orders, from which it can be deduced that the trend will not improve in the autumn, frustrating the expectations of the money managers who had bet on the European recovery". And, we can add, on the Renzi effect. “The accounts are quickly done – summarizes Tognoli – The commitment of the Fiscal Compact is worth 45-50 billion, the commitments made by the premier are worth at least another 10-15 billion. Yet the government denies additional maneuvers, which increases the uncertainty of international operators who do not see clearly”. Hence the escape” No, the situation is very different compared to a couple of years ago: this time there is no disaffection towards Italy. The operators are ready to return when the situation clears up”. Maybe after the summer, an opportunity for “a bath in the humility of the markets – underlines Verzelli – which in recent months have been drugged by the mirage of infinite liquidity, good for resolving any situation. Instead, after the excellent collection of the banks, we need to think about how to repay the trust of the shareholders”.
In short, it will not be a summer dedicated to Taurus. Hoping, moreover, that the outbreaks of war in the Middle East do not distort the international picture, which also presents few notes of comfort. “What is happening in the oil fields – comments Claudia Segre, general secretary of Assiom Forex – represents a dramatic novelty. Hamas has returned to office thanks to new funding. ISIL, having turned its back on Syria, understood that the game was played on the control of the wells: today the terrorists earn a million dollars a day from the wells and can count on infinite resources. The West must take note that the most strategic areas of the region are passing under the control of extremist powers, which is also causing great tensions in the Gulf States as demonstrated by the collapse of the Dubai Stock Exchange”.
A gloomy picture, so far gone in less plan. “It's easy to understand why: the most immediate problem concerns Europe, which instead of getting back on top. Perhaps the time has come to think of something new given that hoping for inflation as an engine of recovery has led us nowhere so far”. In short, fewer shares but no sales. Be careful to take your chances on the Bond front, in case of sudden thuds. Without stress burned beyond measure with the daily reading of prices: it will not be an Espirito Santo to extinguish the animal spirits of the markets.
