Il government he revisited the idea of privatize some state companies looking for funds for the 20 billion expected in the next three years in Nadef, a challenge that borders on the impossible. The companies he would focus on to open up capital to private individuals would be Poste Italiane e state Railways, in addition to the sale of a share of Monte dei Paschi. And the goal would be to achieve this by April 2024.
But the opening to the private sector of the Group led by Luigi Ferraris raises a question series of problems complex issues that go far beyond the financial aspect.
Privatize the entire FS Group
Ferrovie dello Stato is one of the large public companies that can be privatizedlast one of which the State owns 100% but its privatization is far from simple.
The opening of the Group Capital would not be limited only to the profitable parts, such as Trenitalia and in particular theHigh speed, but would include the entire holding, inclusive of RFI, which manages the railway network, e Anas, responsible for the road network. But if Trenitalia's business would not cause any problems, the situation is more complex as regards the other two companies.
The problem of the railway and road network
The underlying problem lies, in the privatization of companies with networks, which these companies often operate in concession regime and infrastructure is owned by the state. The railway network, in particular, represents a substantial part of the overall value of the State Railways.
The privatization of the railway network is the most delicate part since it is responsible for the majority of investments, including those coming from public and European funds such as the Pnrr. The return on these investments it should derive from the fees paid by companies such as Trenitalia and Italo, mainly generated by high-speed routes, while regional and local routes represent a greater challenge.
When deciding to open up capital, the government must ensure that the value of the infrastructure is balanced against the price it requires for private entry. This aspect makes the privatization process complex and requires an accurate evaluation of the infrastructures and assets involved.
At least a year and a half to determine the value of the assets
To determine the profitability of investments, it is essential to establish the value of the assets involved, which should be subject to specific regulation. It is therefore essential to clarify and make transparent the criteria according to which returns on investments are determined, also considering the increase in interest rates on debt.
The process would take time, perhaps a year and a half, to determine the value of infrastructure such as tracks, bridges and other infrastructure. Furthermore, in the case of the State Railways, it is not just a question of railway networks, but also of a vast road network managed by Anas.
It is necessary to establish the Rab, which represents the value of regulated assets, and specify how and to what extent the investments will be repaid, presumably through train ticket prices.
In short, a complex process that requires careful planning.
Maintain the liberalization of the sector
Another problem concerns the liberalization of the sector. RFI must maintain separate management from the rest of the group since the railway sector was liberalized, and Trenitalia has to compete with other operators, such as Italo.
One option could be to spin off Trenitalia and RFI while keeping the latter under direct state control.
The sale of 29% of Poste Italiane is quicker
To generate liquidity quickly, the sale of parts of already listed companies represents the most immediate solution.
The situation of Poste Italiane, for example, is simpler. The value of the company has increased significantly since its listing, going from 6,75 euros in 2015 to 9,82 euros, with a capitalization of almost 13 billion euros. If the state sold 29% of the company, would collect around 3,6 billion euros, maintaining control of just over 30% which would remain in the hands of CDP. The only problem to be resolved would be that concerning the share of dividends which the State should give up in the privatization process.
