Imagine pay for a liter of milk more than a liter of petrol. In Italy it would be unthinkable, especially in this phase in which the full tank tends to be quite expensive, due to the crisis of raw materials. In Brazil, instead, the opposite happens: Petrobras, thanks to the umpteenth intervention of the government, has recently lowered the price of fuels, thus favoring the historic overtaking. In July, in the metropolitan area of São Paulo (taken as a parameter, but reflects the trend of the whole country), a liter of petrol dropped below 6 reais, 5,95 to be precise - the equivalent of slightly more of 1 euro, with the current exchange rate – with a decrease of 13,5% compared to the previous month. At the same time a liter of milk, which is a basic necessity, always rose by 25% in the São Paulo capital (national figure +25,46%) to 6,79 reais, i.e. with the current exchange rate as much as a branded product in Italy, but already much more expensive than, for example, supermarket brands.
Why is milk so expensive? Blame the election campaign
A year ago, in July 2021, the situation was completely opposite: petrol cost 5,46 reais per liter (war had not yet broken out in Ukraine), and a liter of milk on supermarket shelves was bought for less than 4 reais , about 80 euro cents with the current exchange rate. Within 12 months, the price of milk is therefore increased by about two-thirds, and that's not all. Also considering the increase in the cost of coffee, research by the Procon-SP institute points out that compared to a year ago, the average Paulista consumer spends 71,5% more to buy milk and coffee: the latter has in fact risen from 9 reais per 500 grams, to 15,5 reais. How can this anomaly be explained? In two ways: campaign e changes climate. "We are among the countries in the world where fuel is cheaper," the president reiterated Jair Bolsonaro, making the drop in fuel prices one of the banners of the electoral campaign, which will culminate on 2 October with the first round of the challenge between the outgoing president, a proponent of Trumpism in a Latin American sauce, and the socialist Squid, formerly in charge of Brazil from 2003 to 2011.
But also of drought
The significant drop in the price of petrol, in the midst of the turbulence on the commodity markets, can in fact be explained almost exclusively by a government intervention, which has cut state taxes on fuels for the third time in recent months; although it is true that in the meantime the slowdown in Chinese GDP has reduced the oil rally, compared to the surge in late February, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine had just begun. The milk from him is affected by the period of drought extreme which has been investing for a couple of months in various areas of Brazil, including the State of São Paulo: with dry fields, livestock productivity has necessarily decreased, and furthermore costs have increased to compensate for the shortage of grass with the administration of feed, the price of which has increased during the pandemic.
Milk more expensive than petrol: penalize the weakest groups
It goes without saying that Bolsonaro's move penalizes above all the weaker sections of the population, who usually do not own cars and thus find it more difficult to buy basic necessities such as milk and coffee, despite the fact that the last month has actually been characterized, general level, from a deflationary trend (inflation -0,68%) and even the index of the food and beverage sector has indeed risen but only by 1,3%. Not surprisingly, in the month of July the question “Por que o leite està tão caro?” (“Why is milk so expensive?”) was among the most clicked on Google, and second Google Trends the search hadn't been this popular in ten years now. And that's not all: searches for les have exploded by 290%. dairy free brownie recipes. For now we adapt, waiting to be able to cast their vote.
