The rise in Chinese industrial production (+10,1% in November, in line with forecasts) does not excite Asian stock markets, now focused on next week's Fed meeting. Tokyo is down slightly, one hour after the closure, on a par with Hong Kong. Shanghai salt +0,3%.
Wall Street also sat flat: the Dow Jones advanced by 0,05%, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq by 0,15%. European stock markets moved little yesterday, held back by disappointing data on German production: Paris unchanged and Frankfurt +0,2%. With a decisive extension towards the end, Piazza Affari ended first in its class in Europe: Ftse Mib index +0,9% at 18285 points, flanked by Madrid.
A veritable parade of central bank members was scheduled last night. But from the various speeches, as expected, no clear indication has emerged: James Bullard, number one of the St. Louis Fed, voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, has not ruled out a "small tapering", as a reaction to the improvement in the labor market. Instead, Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed spoke out for an immediate end to the tapering. Finally, Jeffrey Lacker, of the Richmond Fed, recalled that the decisions of the central bank must take into account the next round of budget negotiations in Congress. In short, the tapering is close but perhaps not imminent.
HISTORIC DAY IN WALL STREET
Meanwhile, two historical facts are being celebrated:
1) since yesterday Gm +1,7% is no longer Government Motors. The US Treasury has completed the sale of the last securities of the Detroit company inherited from the 2009 intervention. The GM operation, in particular, closed with a loss (39 billion collected against 51 invested) but after having created 370 jobs "healthy" jobs, as Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew was keen to point out. However, the Tarp program hasn't cost the taxpayers a dollar. Against the 421 billion of aid to the economy in 2009, the State has so far collected 432 billion.
2) Today the five federal agencies will pass the Volcker Rule, or the reform that prohibits banks from certain particularly risky trading activities, such as those on own account. The provision will no longer have to pass in Parliament but will be operational for banks only from July 2015,
THE SPREAD BELOW 230. THE RENTI EFFECT ALSO COUNTS
For once, politics has lent a hand to the upside, both on the equity front and, above all, on the spread. The BTP strengthens on the government bond market and its yield drops by three basis points to 4,14%. Spread with the Bund again below the psychological threshold of 230 basis points (-4 basis points).
Can we speak of a Renzi effect? “Apart from other considerations, we believe that the vast majority that Renzi obtained should be viewed positively – reads a comment from Mediobanca Securities – given that he was presented as a reformist. And it seems clear that voters believe that making reforms is not an option but a duty”.
Also for Banca Akros “Renzi's strong result can stimulate an acceleration in the political scenario, forcing the government to implement reforms, starting with the one expected on the electoral system” . The key appointment, therefore, will be the trust that Letta will have to ask in Parliament on Wednesday: "the vote will confirm the current government with a renewed program that could clearly be influenced by Renzi".
BANKING UNION, TOWARDS THE AGREEMENT. MPS BOUNCES
The compromise on the Banking Union is closeFrench Economy Minister Pierre Moscovici said. "There will be a common fund for bailouts - said Moscovici - but a significant role for the authorities of individual countries". In short, a formula that takes into account the demands of Southern Europe but also German intransigence. A tiring compromise with a paradoxical outcome: it will take ten years to raise the 55 billion needed for the resolution fund.
In this context, however, the bank most at risk reacts: in Milan the best blue chip was Monte dei Paschi +4,9%, in strong recovery after a few sessions in flexion. EUR. The spotlights continue to be focused on the capital increase after the Foundation declared that it will cast a negative vote in the meeting if the operation is not moved to the second quarter of next year.
Ubi Banca +2,4% and Banco Popolare +2,1% were also highlighted. Piero Giarda, in kicking off his electoral campaign for the presidency, Bpm vehemently rejected the hypothesis of a merger of Piazza Meda with Banco Popolare: "The idea of a merger of Banca Popolare di Milano with other banks for as far as our list is concerned, it has neither head nor tail. It is a pure figment of the imagination”.
The other banks follow, again on positive ground: Unicredit +1,2%, Intesa +0,6%, Mediobanca +1%.
FONSAI OVER 2 EUROS. GOLDMAN REWARDS MANAGED
Among the insurance companies, the performance of Fondiaria Sai +4,1%: the stock has crossed the psychological threshold of two euros, it is at the highest level for the year, with an increase of more than 100%. Generali +1%. Asset management stocks are on positive territory, after the data on November collection. Azimut +1,02%, Banca Generali +1,71%, Mediolanum +0,31%. Goldman Sachs confirmed the buy judgment on Azimut, target price at 20,2 euros. neutral for Banca Generali, the target price of 19,3 euros and Mediolanum, tp at 6,3 euros.
BARCLAYS BETS ON SAIPEM
It stood out among the industrialists Finmeccanica +3,3%, Pirelli+1,9%, Ansaldo Sts +2,2% and Prysmian +2%. Up 3,4% Saipem. Barclays experts confirmed the overweight recommendation and the target price of 20 euro for the latter, forecasting a transitional 2014 and a long-term recovery for the company. Eni +0,4%. Telecom Italia +1,5%. Atlantic +2,2%. Autogrill and World Duty Free closed up 1,3%.
THE WIND OF RENEWABLES IS BLOWING
Sector in full swing. Falck Renewables +1,78%. The company sold 49% of its wind farms in Great Britain, obtaining a capital gain of over 130 million euros. Over the course of the plan to 2017, a payout of 30% is envisaged which will not be substantially modified, explained the CEO Piero Manzoni, however not excluding a revision of the targets when new projects are brought to the Copenhagen Infrastructure fund with which it was partnership signed.
Metabolized the shock of the charge of tax fraud, Erg +4,11% has returned to the center of attention. Among the causes also the possible interest of Unicredit to participate in the capital of Erg Renew, the company specialized in investments in renewables. The objective of the operation could mainly be the financing of the future growth of the vehicle for which Banca Imi (buy on Erg) does not exclude a listing.
The shares of KREnergy skyrocket +22,77%, in anticipation of next Thursday's press conference on the strategies of the company that has paid off its debts to banks before the deadline (set in December 2014). The day of renewable energy records is completed by the exploit of Ergy Capital +8,97%.
IPO, AFTER MONCLER LEONE FILM ADVANCES
On the eve of the closure of the offer of Moncler stocks, attention continues for luxury stocks: Vivaci i stocks of luxury. Ferragamo +2,1%, Tod's +2%, Cucinelli +2%. Little movement Luxottica +0,5%. Speaking of freshmen, the placement of shares is about to sell out Leone Film group, a company founded in Rome in 1989 by Sergio Leone and led by his children Andrea and Raffaella, which aims to make its debut on Aim Italia on 18 December.
At the moment, the institutional book has been completely covered, with requests from investors for over 13 million euros, half of which today alone, or four days before the closing of the offer period (13 December morning). The listing price, ranging between 4,8 and 5,8 euros, for a valuation of the company between 65 and 75 million euros and a 25% free float, will be set on Friday.
