Mélenchon, the left-wing populist who thought he was prime minister in pectore but who the numbers disavow twice

It is not known how long the provisional government will last Gabriel Attal, until to Olympics or later?, but given the surprise results from Sunday's ballot and barring any new moves by the President Emmanuel Macronin France the most probable hypothesis of forming a majority which for now does not exist is to attempt a coalition government between a large part of the Popular Front and the Macronians, with the support of at least twenty Republicans. With all due respect to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the maximalist wing of the Popular Front, anti-Semitic and pro-Putin, who Giuliano Ferrara he slammed yesterday in "Il Foglio" with a headline that says it all: "Mélenchon is just a bluff". On Sunday, a minute after the first projections on the ballots, Mélenchon, as a true tribune, proclaimed himself leader of the Front and new prime minister in pectore, excluding any alliance with Macronites (who took more seats than him: 98 against 71) and announcing an economic program that would shake the markets. But the numbers disprove Mélenchon twice, even if perhaps he doesn't know it. They disavow him within the Popular Front which received 180 votes and in which Insubordinate France (Mélenchon's party) has indeed received more votes than the others but is divided on Mélenchon and is in the minority within the Front itself (FP). Here are the numbers: of the 180 seats of the Popular Front, 71 went to LFI (La France Insoumise), 64 to the socialists, 33 to the ecologists, 9 to the PC and 3 to others. As you can see the axis between socialists and ecologists has a clear majority within the Front and Mélenchon, who is also contested within LFI. It is no coincidence that the secretary of the Socialist Party Olivier Faure yesterday nominated himself as a candidate for the premiership. But as well as within the Popular Front, Mélenchon is in an overwhelming minority in Parliament and has no chance of forming a government, even if it cannot be ruled out that he could receive an initial exploratory mandate which would set off - this is certain - the financial markets. Here too the numbers speak clearly and shatter Mélenchon's dreams. In the French Parliament the majority is 289 seats but a Government centered on the Popular Front with Mélenchon can gather, in the most optimistic of hypotheses, 189. On the contrary, a Government founded on the alliance between Macronians, other centrist forces (Modem and Horizon) and Without Mélenchon, FP would collect 276, a threshold very close to the majority that it could reach with the yes of at least part of the 64 Republicans. Of course Mélenchon can always dream but for him the awakening risks being bitter, very bitter. Like the one of Marine Le Pen.