Il 2025 will be a crucial year, marked by major economic and political changes on a global scale. TheEurope will have to accelerate innovation and investment to recover ground, while the States United, with an aggressive agenda, will influence the international balance. For the Italian companies, the password will be competitiveness: innovation, market diversification and targeted strategies will be essential to face the challenges and seize the opportunities of a constantly evolving context. Agility, vision and a good dose of concreteness are needed to transform challenges into opportunities and not get bogged down in accumulated delays.
This is what emerged in Milan, at the Assolombarda headquarters, during the conference “The World in 2025: Time to Deliver” – organized in partnership with Assolombarda and Sace, within the Geoeconomic Observatory of Ispi and Intesa Sanpaolo – an opportunity to reflect on the future and the global challenges that will influence the economy, politics and industry.
De Felice (Intesa Sanpaolo): Global uncertainty and European challenges
Gregory De Felice, chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo, did not spare realistic tones: "The great uncertainty for 2025 is linked to the European Union's ability to respond to the delays already accumulated in terms of innovation, productivity and investments." The echo of American strategies - with the Trump presidency promising a boost to internal competitiveness - does not leave the Old Continent indifferent, which risks being the slow boxer against an opponent with a fast jab. On the monetary front, De Felice predicts a ballet of rates: "The short-term inflationary effects will modify the Fed's rate reduction path, limiting them to two interventions of 25bp each. Instead, we expect the ECB to decide on four rate cuts of 25bp already in the first half of 2025". In this context, the Italian outlook is moderately positive: "For Italy, we expect growth at 1%, confident in a recovery in household consumption. However, a relaunch of public (PNRR) and private investments (in negative territory since mid-2023) is needed”.
Spada (Assolombarda): Europe must rethink its industrial strategy
Secondo Alessandro Spada, president of Assolombarda, the country's competitiveness is closely linked to Europe's ability to respond with a more incisive industrial vision. "Reversing the current difficult economic cycle is a priority for the competitiveness of the country and our companies," he said.
“Faced with a new political and economic season of Donald Trump's America First and the evolution of various international geopolitical issues”, Spada criticised the “ideological approach and the regulatory system” of the European Union, highlighting the risk of compromising strategic sectors such as the automotive sector: “the new European Commission should change course and implement theDragons Agenda. Today's urgency to relaunch growth is linked to two crucial aspects for the competitiveness of a company: energy and investments. Our competitiveness is played on these games, we cannot lose further ground".
Magri (Ispi): 2025 will be the year of great tests. Ricci (Sace): focus on exports and innovation
Paolo Magri, president of the ISPI Scientific Committee, defined 2025 as "the year in which the main players and global challenges will be put to the test of facts, the year in which ambitions will be transformed into concrete actions. It is undeniable that it will be Trump above all who will make the difference: for America, for China, for Europe, for the entire world. And knowing the unpredictability, the taste for provocations, the negotiating approach of the 47th US president, 2025 opens with one great certainty: it will be the year of great uncertainty."
Alessandra Ricci, CEO of Sace, underlined the strategic role of exports for the Italian economic system: “We are the fourth largest exporting country in the world, behind only China, the United States, Germany, and exports are the main driver of Italian GDP and employment: we expect growth of 3,5% for 2025, equal to 679 billion euros”. For Italian companies, the key to success will be to focus on exports and innovation. “To be more competitive, they can leverage the diversification of outlet markets, consequently decreasing the concentration of risk and expanding the number of reference supply chains, relying on AI and technological innovation”.
The experiences of Alfasigma and Fontana
Marco Castino, general manager of Alfasigma Italia, illustrated his company's commitment to the biotechnology field, highlighting the importance of a global vision: "In Alfasigma, over the last two years we have invested more than one billion euros in acquisitions, particularly in the biotechnology sector. We are ambitious and concrete in our path, as well as aware that in the current context it is crucial to combine innovation, speed to market and a high standard of quality. Thinking globally and working in culturally diverse teams are some of the key elements to build a culture oriented towards excellence and growth. Our approach will continue to combine pragmatism and vision, as has always been in Alfasigma's DNA, with the aim of responding promptly to market conditions and patient needs"
Giuseppe Fontana, CEO of Fontana Gruppo, instead underlined the importance of localization as a strategy to penetrate new markets: “We have important expectations on several markets outside of Europe, on which we intend to work also to support our growth in other sectors beyond the automotive. Our strategy has always been aimed at localization, that is, to build on-site in the various markets structures and organizations capable of serving those same markets”.
