Consumption is driving the recovery. This is what emerges from the consumption indicator Confcommercio (Icc), which recorded a trend growth of 2015% in December 1,7, and an improvement of 2015% in the entire calendar year 1,6, the first since 2007, before the crisis. This is also confirmed by a note fromIstat, which shows that the economy is progressing more slowly than expected but is driven precisely by household consumption, for which "the current levels of confidence are associated with the growth of disposable income, to which the current phase of low inflation contributes ”.
According to Confcommercio in January the household confidence climate, after the decline in December, has once again risen to an all-time high. However, this element is struggling to translate into a concrete recovery in demand. “It must be said that the crisis of recent years has resulted not only in a drop in consumption, but also in an erosion of precautionary savings and in a significant reduction in the traditional form of household investment (house purchase).
At this moment, in the light of what emerges from other indicators, it is presumable that households are looking for forms of rebalancing between consumption, savings and investments and that only in the coming months will consumption be able to return to growth at a more sustained pace", says the press release .
The situation is different on the side of companies which in the month of January showed a prevalence of judgments tending towards pessimism, albeit to a mixed extent. Sentiment deteriorated more markedly among operators in market services and the retail trade, while the decline was modest for construction and manufacturing entrepreneurs.
The not particularly brilliant performance of manufacturing sentiment fits into a context in which the industrial production, while continuing on the recovery path of the business, shows a not particularly brilliant growth. According to provisional estimates by Confindustria, an increase in industrial production of 0,6% was recorded in January compared to the previous month (+0,2 December). This evolution signals, also in the light of what was recorded on the orders side (+0,5 cyclical in January, +0,8 December), a possible start to 2016 that is slightly more favorable than the end of 2015.
