Markets are on standby: any decision to sell or buy would be risky just a few hours after the US monetary policy announcement. fomc It starts today, but the announcement, practically a foregone conclusion, of a 25 basis point cut in Fed rates is due tomorrow. But what will most interest and worry investors will be any indication of the 2026 outlook, with investors bonds that are positioning themselves for a less intense cycle of U.S. monetary easing.
Index quotes from Wall Street to Asia indicate "zero-point" changes. European futures point to a slight higher opening and it is worth keeping an eye on chip sector stocks: the United States will allow Nvidia to export its H200 processors, its second-best artificial intelligence chips, to China, charging a 25 percent commission on sales, President Donald Trump announced last night. The industry Aerospace and Defense returns to racing, with peace further away in Ukraine and new orders for the big names.
Wall Street closes slightly down. Eyes on tech and Warner Bros.
Yesterday the main indices of Wall Street closed slightly lower, with most industrial sectors of the S&P 500 in the red, while Treasury yields rose, amid nervous anticipation of tomorrow's Fed decision. The Dow closed down 0,45%, the S&P 500 down 0,35%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0,14%. Oppenheimer he stared a target of 8.100 points for the S&P 500, Wall Street's maximum for 2026, compared to the current 6.800 points.
Although the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, some analysts warn that the U.S. central bank may signal a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing in the future. This is because still-high inflation and the lack of updated data during the lockdown have caused divisions among Fed officials. Money markets tend to predict two more moves by the end of 2026, while just a week ago they predicted three.
Yesterday, thegovernment bond auction A $58 billion three-year bond yielded lower than expected, a sign of stronger-than-expected demand. Auctions are scheduled for Tuesday and Thursday for $39 billion in 10-year bonds and $22 billion in 30-year bonds, respectively.
Everyone on Wall Street is talking about the story Warner Bros Discovery after Paramount Skydance launched a hostile takeover bid at $30 a share in cash, just days after the company reached a deal with Netflix Inc. The offer values Warner Bros. at $108,4 billion, including debt. According to filings, the counteroffer is supported by everyone: Bank of America, Citigroup, and Apollo Global Management. Also backing the offer are RedBird Capital Partners and Larry Ellison, the world's richest man, the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, the Qatar Investment Authority, Abu Dhabi's Imad Holding Company PJSC, and Affinity Partners, owned by Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law. The offer has boosted Warner Bros. Discovery shares of 4,4%, while the shares of the Paramount have jumped by 9% and those of Netflix fell by 3,4%.
The only sector on the rise is that technological which added 0,9% with the increases of Microsoft, Nvidia, and BroadcomLater this week, attention will shift to expected data from Broadcom and Oracle. Positive for AI companies was Trump's announcement yesterday of an executive order creating a single national framework for AI, which will come into effect this week.
In Asia, Chinese stocks fell after Trump's approval of Nvidia, while Tokyo's Nikkei rose.
Asia Pacific stocks are mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 0,2%.
In China companies in the food industry are declining chip. Donald Trump announced on Truth "Informed Chinese President Xi that the United States will allow Nvidia to ship its h200 products (AI chips) to approved customers in China and other countries, under conditions that maintain strong national security." "President Xi," he continues, "responded positively! The 25% will be paid to the United States of America. This policy will support American jobs, strengthen American manufacturing, and benefit American taxpayers." "The Biden administration," he accuses, "has forced our great companies to spend billions of dollars building 'degraded' products that no one wanted, a terrible idea that has slowed innovation and harmed American workers. That era is over! We will protect national security, create American jobs, and maintain American leadership in artificial intelligence. Nvidia's US customers are already moving forward with their incredible, cutting-edge Blackwell and, soon, Rubin chips, neither of which are part of this deal." My administration will always put America first. The Commerce Department is finalizing the details, and the same approach will apply to AMD, Intel, and other large American companies." CSI 300 indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 0,1%. Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 0,7%. HashKey Holdings, the operator of the largest licensed stock exchange in Hong Kong in the cryptocurrency sector, is seeking to raise up to HK$1,67 billion ($215 million) through an initial public offering. Wall Street Journal reports that over the past twelve months, China's manufacturing industry has continued to grow and strengthen across the world, including in the United States.
In Japan, the Nikkei index Tokyo is up 0,1%that yen consolidated after a decline on Monday, when a magnitude 7,6 earthquake struck Japan's northeastern coast. On Tuesday, the shares of construction companies and insurance companies have risen. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she was closely monitoring market developments as the yield on 10-year government debt hovers around 2%, a level not seen since 2006. Tonight's auction of five-year government bonds saw weak demand, underscoring investor caution as expectations of a rate increase by the Bank of Japan this month.
Mumbai's BSE Sensex index fell 0,6%. South Korea: Seoul's Kospi index fell 0,3%.
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia The central bank held its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting. However, three-year yields, sensitive to monetary policy, rose to their highest since last November, as the central bank warned that inflation risks had shifted to the upside and Governor Michele Bullock said the meeting discussed conditions for a rate hike in 2026. The Australian dollar appreciated against the greenback.
The indicator of the dollar dropped slightly, while the Bitcoin fell by about 1,5%. Gold and silver remained in a narrow range. Copper is heading for new records. Petroleum has stabilized after its steepest decline in three weeks, as traders await this week's reports to assess the extent of the supply glut.
European stock markets opened slightly higher. At the Milan Stock Exchange, Leonardo and Monte Paschi di Siena were all eyes on the stock market.
European stocks are expected to open slightly higher. EuroStoxx 50 futures are expected to rise 0,07%.
Banca MediolanumJP Morgan raises target price to 22 euros from 20.
Monte Paschi Bank. The board of directors has reportedly decided to present the business plan for the merger between MPS and Mediobanca by early March, approximately a month earlier than originally envisaged. This is according to a report. The Corriere della Sera, stressing that the advance would have been discussed during last Friday's meeting. The newspaper adds that no final decision has been made on the possible merger between the two institutions.
Fineco Bank: JP Morgan raises target price to 26,5 euros from 23,1 euros.
IvecoThe "golden power" conditions applied by the government to approve the sale of the truck manufacturer to Tata Motors include the requirement to store data from driver and vehicle monitoring systems within Italy or Europe, according to Il Sole 24-Ore.
LeonardoGerman lawmakers are poised to approve 29 military procurement contracts worth a record €52 billion ($61 billion) next week, part of the government's effort to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe's strongest conventional army, the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs writes this morning. BloombergThe orders cover a wide range of materials and services, including €22 billion for basic military equipment and clothing, €4,2 billion for Puma combat vehicles, €3 billion for Arrow 3 interceptor missiles and air defense rocket launchers, and €1,6 billion for surveillance satellites.
StellantisThe European Union intends to postpone until December 16 legislative proposals to expand its carbon border tax and potentially weaken the 2035 ban on new CO2-emitting cars, according to a draft European Commission agenda seen by ReutersStellantis and Bolt are accelerating the deployment of driverless mobility in Europe. Production is expected to begin in 2029. The company will sell its small electric car, the Topolino, in the United States. The automaker, according to CNBC's website, has not announced a timeline for the vehicle, but Fiat CEO Olivier Francois has confirmed the intention to launch the vehicle on the market, with "further details to be provided next year."
Unicredit is closing its operations in Russia, the daily newspaper Kommersan reports in a background story, which reports that local top managers are leaving. UniCredit plans to completely exit Russia before December 26.
