New glimmers of peaceThe meeting at Mar-a-Lago between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky scores a possible turning point in the negotiations on the war in Ukraine. First a long phone call with Vladimir Putin, then the face to face with the Ukrainian president. And so the American president says he is optimistic, "an agreement is close. If things go well, there could be one within a few weeks."
Il the dialogue therefore proceeds on a dual trackOn the one hand, direct confrontation between Washington and Moscow; on the other, work with Kiev to define the political and strategic contours of the agreement. The atmosphere of the bilateral meeting with Zelensky appears different from the past: relaxed tones, handshakes, and explicit words of appreciation. "This man has worked hard and is very courageous, his people are also very courageous," Trump says, confirming a change in the personal and political relationship between the two leaders.
If there has been a step forward, However, there remain decisive obstacles to overcome. The percentages, repeated several times in front of journalists, speak of an agreement between 90 and 95% possible. But that 5-10% still unresolved weighs like a millstoneDonbass, occupied territories, Zaporizhia power plant, and security guarantees. Essentially, there's a basic agreement, but the final stretch of the negotiation is the most difficult.
Donbass, the real obstacle to overcome
Il the most delicate point remains DonbassTrump calls it "a big problem," Zelensky calls it by name: "It's a difficult issue. We have different positions with Russia. I wouldn't say we agree on this point, but we're getting closer."
On the table is thehypothesis of an economic or free trade zone, but without a shared solution on territorial sovereignty. From Moscow the message is simple: to achieve peace, a "courageous political decision" from Kiev is needed, that is, accepting territorial concessions. This is where the negotiation risks getting stuck, because Zelensky continues to reject the idea of a complete withdrawal from Donbass, especially from areas not controlled by Russia.
Trump, however, insists, "we are moving in the right direction" and warns that time is not on Kiev's side, without an agreement, those territories “could be lost anyway”.
Zaporizhia, truce and security: open files
In addition to the territories, there remain two more key chapters remain unresolvedThe first is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plantTrump revealed he discussed it with Putin, "he's working with Ukraine to reopen it; he's good at that." Zelensky, however, remains cautious and opposed to shared management with Moscow.
The second dossier is that of the truce and security guaranteesIn the phone call with Putin, Trump agreed that an immediate ceasefire “would only prolong hostilities.” A structural solution is needed, not an armed pause. As for guarantees for Kiev, the American president reassures, "there will be a solid agreement. European nations are involved in this."
Zelensky, aware of having reached the decisive moment, also opens up on the internal political level: he puts on the table the possibility of a referendum on the peace plan and says he is available, in case of agreement, to call the first elections since 2019, provided that safety is guaranteed.
European guarantees and the Russian unknown
After the bilateral meeting, Trump and Zelensky met connected with European leadersEurope, the White House assures, will have a central role in security guarantees. During the call, the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni he recalled the need to remain united in a decisive phase of the negotiations, while the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen He stressed that “significant progress has been made” and that the agreement’s sustainability will depend on “unshakable security guarantees from day one.”
Trump is already looking to the next steps: a new summit with the Europeans in January, perhaps at the White House. The possibility of a trip to Ukraine or a speech to the Kiev parliament also lingers in the background.We are in the final stages of the talksEither the war will end, or it will go on for a long time.”
Behind American optimism, however, the Russian unknown remainsIn Moscow, there is still talk of a "long-term" solution, not a simple ceasefire, while on the ground the conflict does not stopAfter Mar-a-Lago, the ball is now in Moscow's court. And The fine line between peace and stalemate passes through Donbass.
