Novo Nordisk has seen its stock plummet almost 18% on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange after publicationanticipated of the forecasts for 2026, clearly lower than expected analysts. The Danish pharmaceutical group, symbol of the revolution in anti-obesity drugs, announced last night a more cautious outlook for the current year, triggering immediate sales also in shares listed in the United States (-14,64%), and erasing much of the gains accumulated since the beginning of the year, supported by the launch of the new oral formulation of Wegovy.
Novo Nordisk expects sales and operating profit to decline in 2026
According to the estimates released by the company, in 2026 both sales is operating profit they might decrease between 5% and 13% At constant exchange rates, confirming a slowdown that began with the July 2025 profit warning. After a year marked by forecast revisions and stock volatility, analysts, who had expected a much more contained decline, were surprised by the pessimism of the new estimates. CEO Mike Doustdar sent a clear message to investors: "People should expect it to go down before it goes up," emphasizing that the slowdown is transitory but inevitable before a possible recovery in volumes. The downgrading of estimates for 2026 also had an impact on the sector: drug titles anti-obesity have undergone Prevention diffuse, with Eli Lilly down 4% on Wall Street and Amgen almost 2%.
Price pressure and the US market at the heart of the problems
Il US market, the most important for Novo Nordisk, is at the center of difficulties. The company is facing pricessignificantly more bassi, especially for Wegovy, its flagship weight-loss drug. Direct competition from rivals like Eli Lilly's Zepbound, combined with the launch of generic versions of Ozempic expected in international markets by the end of the year, is increasing pressure on revenues. Furthermore, the "Most Favored Nation Pricing" policies introduced by the administration Trump are reducing the effective prices of GLP-1 drugs in the United States, compressingfurther the marginiThe loss of exclusivity on semaglutide in several countries contributes to an increasingly challenging competitive environment.
Doustdar emphasized the long-term potential, however: "We are creating accessible solutions for millions of patients who cannot afford GLP-1 drugs today. In the short term, this means facing a headwind, but the long-term potential remains intact."
Global market for anti-obesity drugs is increasingly competitive
The new forecasts highlight that the anti-obesity drug sector has entered a more competitive phase, attracting the interest of all major pharmaceutical companies. The Danish giant has acknowledged that it is no longer realistic to promise the extraordinary growth rates of past years and that it will be necessary find new ways to expand the patient base. According to analysts at BarclaysThe company's forecasts may be considered "conservative", but similar experiences in the past have not led to actual increases, explaining the strong negative reaction of the market.
Novo Nordisk's 2025 financial statements: highlights and shadows
2025 ended with a Useful Operating profit of DKK 127,7 billion, down 1% in local currency but up 6% at constant exchange rates. Excluding corporate transformation costs of approximately DKK 8 billion, operating profit would have increased 6% in local currency and 13% at constant exchange rates. sales In the United States, they grew by 3% in local currency (+8% at constant exchange rates), while international ones recorded an increase of 10% (+14% at constant exchange rates). Net profit reached 102,4 billion crowns, up 1% from 2024. The Board of Directors will propose a dividend final dividend of 7,95 crowns per share, bringing the total dividend for 2025 to 11,70 crowns.
Management also highlighted strategic initiatives to support long-term growth, including the launch of Wegovy oral formats and expansion into new markets, but uncertainty about future revenue remains high and analysts are divided on the timing of a return to stable growth.
Wegovy oral pill: a starting point
Despite the difficulties, the beginning of 2026 saw strong interest in the oral version of Wegovy in the United States, with numbers higher than initially expected. The CEO confirmed the high efficacy of the drug and the rapid response from patients: “We knew it would be very effective, but we did not expect such a rapid spread in the first few weeks.” The positive sales of Wegovy represent a possible glimmer of hope. hope for the company, although it remains to be seen whether the recovery will be rapid or slower, U-shaped.
