The outcome of the first round of the French presidential elections makes its effects felt not only on the stock market, but also on the currency and bond markets.
this night theeuro it soared to a peak of $1,0938, the highest value since the middle of last November. In the following hours, the common currency trimmed some of its gains and settled at $1,0868 by late morning. Gains also on the British pound, which slipped to 0,8474 euros.
Meanwhile, it BTP-Bund spread it fell to 183 basis points (-8,7%), a significant drop considering that last week the differential traveled over 200. The low of the day was even below 180 basis points, at 179,8.
Returning to the currency market, analysts show varied positions on the prospects for the euro-dollar exchange rate. The experts of Ing they see a brake on the rise of the euro only in the event of any restrictive maneuvers by the Federal Reserve. If, on the other hand, the US central bank does not move, on the basis of current values, analysts expect an appreciation to 1,12-1,13 by June.
More cautious forecast than Morgan Stanley. According to the American Business Bank, Macron's ability to magnetize the electoral consensus necessary to win is to be verified and the euro will have to break steadily upwards at 1,0925 dollars before being able to make further strengthening.
