The CSC, Confindustria Study Center, detects a drop in industrial production of 0,3% in September over August, when a zero change on the previous month was estimated. On the basis of these estimates, in the third quarter activity decreased by 0,9% on the second. The trailing quarter is -0,2%.
The level of industrial activity is very low and far from the pre-crisis level. However, the declines on a quarterly basis have been attenuating since the beginning of 2012 and, if the estimates of the CSC are confirmed by the official data, the variation during the summer will be the least negative for a year. In September, industrial production is estimated to have decreased by 5,6% compared to the same month in 2011.
This decline is calculated on data corrected for working days which this year were two fewer not only compared to the previous year but also compared to the normal calendar. This may have artificially raised the activity statistic in September and, consequently, could have a negative influence on that of October.
Order volumes are estimated to be down: -0,6% over August and -1,3% over twelve months. Last month they decreased by 0,9% on July and by 1,0% on the year. Recent leading indicators have stopped deteriorating but remain at their lowest since early 2009.
Download the pdf of the CSC Report
Attachments: CSC Industrial Production_September 2012.pdf
