THE SUPERDOLLAR IS NOT SLOWING DOWN, EURO BELOW 1,08. QE PUSHES BANKS AND REAL ESTATE SECURITIES
The prospect of a rise in US rates, combined with the launch of European Qe, produces its effects on the currency markets, with growing uncertainty for emerging currencies and stock exchanges. The dollar/euro cross fell below the 1,98 barrier while this morning it takes 122 yen for a dollar, the highest since 2007.
Futures signal a weak start for European stock exchanges and for Wall Street. After a positive start, Tokyo is starting to close with a decrease of less than a percentage point. Shanghai is also weak, despite inflation rising to 1,4%. The US stock markets recovered after Friday's slide: the Dow Jones index advanced by 0,78%, the S&P 500 by 0,39% and the Nasdaq by 0,31%. Apple rose by 0,4% after the public presentation of the new smartwatch and a 12-inch MacBook.
Highlights too Gm +3,07%: the Detroit house will buy back 5 billion dollars of treasury shares. The move is expected to avoid a battle with investor Harry J. Wilson, who will reverse his bid for two seats on the Detroit auto giant's board. Brent rose to 58,50 dollars a barrel in the evening.
PIAZZA AFFARI IS THE BEST BAG
The Milan Stock Exchange marks a new increase: the FtseMib index rises by 0,4%, to the highest since February 2011, while the All share marks the record for the last five years. Frankfurt gains 0,27%. In the rest of Europe the downward trend prevails: Paris loses 0,51%, Frankfurt is on parity, Madrid -0,3%. London closed at -0,34%.
THE BUND ACCELERATES, THE BTP DOESN'T MISS
The march of the 1,29-year BTP continues, down to 3% (-6 basis points), but the German Bund does better, whose yield falls by 0,34 basis points to 2%: the spread widens by 95 basis points at 2016 basis points. The start of Qe has rewarded German sovereign bonds, thanks to the purchases of the Bundesbank. Then the central banks of Belgium and France took action together with the Bank of Italy which yesterday specified the amount of purchases between now and September 150: 130 billion in all, of which XNUMX by via Nazionale.
Yesterday's purchases were concentrated around the 10-year stretch, then extended to the longer part of the curve, up to 25 years". A specialist institute reports purchases of Btp especially on the 10-15 year section of the curve. Three-year BTPs were also purchased, the maturity being auctioned by the Italian Treasury on Thursday the 12th. According to experts, this could mean a 'black period', in which central banks refrain from buying government bonds close to be placed in the auction, less than 3 days.
The mid-month auctions begin in this setting, the first of the Qe era. Tomorrow the Treasury will offer 6,5 billion 12-month BOTs against 7,6 billion maturing. Thursday will be the turn of the 3-year BTPs (from 2 to 2,5 billion), 7 years (from 2,5 to 3 billion) and the 30-year BTPs (from 1,25 to 1,75 billion). The BTP strengthened to 1,29% (-3 basis points), but the Bund also rose in price, whose yield fell by 6 basis points to 0,34%: the spread widened by 2 basis points to 95 basis points.
GREECE ON THE ROPES. TOMORROW NEW EXAM
Greece does not participate in the Qe party, again under stress. The Athens stock exchange, under the threat of the squeeze on European loans, lost 4,18%.
"Today we agreed that there is no more time to waste." With these words the president of the Eurogroup Jeroem Djissembloem closed yet another bitter day for the Greek government of Alexis Tsipras. EU ministers gave the Greek delegation a cold welcome. “There will be no disbursement before an agreement that provides for clear and precise deadlines on the commitments” Dijssembloem himself spelled out in the morning. And so Greece, to avoid a dramatic break (at the end of the month there won't even be money for salaries) has had to say it's ready to redo its homework, or to modify its commitment plan with Europe.
Technical discussions between Athens and the experts of international institutions (not to be called troika, the only concession to the Greek delegation) on updating the list of reforms that Greece undertakes to adopt will start tomorrow in Brussels.
GOLDMAN ASSIGNS THE OSCAR TO BPER
Positive day for the banking sector. In fact, the Goldman Sachs effect was added to the thrust of the launch of Qe. The US investment bank has rewarded cooperative banks, starting with Bper +3,65% promoted in the broker's conviction buy list with a target price of 10,3 euros. The stock has gained 40% since the beginning of 2015.
Judgment buy also for bpm (target price at 1,01 euros from 0,73). For both titles, according to the report, the season of mergers in the sector offers great opportunities. In reverse Banco Popolare dropped 0,58% after Goldman revised the rating to "neutral" from "buy", believing that the bank's value potential in an M&A scenario is instead more limited.
Positive too Mount Paschi +2,1%: Goldman Sachs raised its target price to 0,62 euro from 0,52 euro, the recommendation is Neutral. Finally, a plus sign also for Unicredit +0,4% and Understanding +0,7%. The expectation for the dividend favored purchases on Generali +1,07 at 18,93 euro.
SAIPEM, THE SOUTH STREAM MATCH IS NOT OVER
UBS oil & gas sector report has given a boost to theEni +1,97%, three days after the board of directors of the six-legged dog. The analysts of the Swiss bank have raised the recommendation on the stock from neutral to buy with the target price going from 16,5 to 19 euros.
Even more lively shopping on Saipem, protagonist of a leap of 4,1% to 9,68 euros. According to Bloomberg, Gazprom is continuing to bear some of the costs related to Southstream after the suspension of the pipeline construction project. On this basis, the market is betting on the fact that, in the end, the project will not be cancelled, also because an official statement has not yet arrived from the consortium.
Very good too Tenaris +2,29%. Down Saras -1,3%.
BLACK TELECOM SWEATER. LIKE THE ATLANTA COUPON
Money day for Atlantia +2,3% after the announcement on Friday of the dividend rising to 0,80 euro. Kepler Cheuvreux raised the target price on the stock from 24,5 to 25,2 euros, confirming the buy recommendation. The other utilities are negative. Enel drops by 0,2%. Weak A2A -1,16% after the president Giovanni Valotti, speaking during a hearing at the Participatory Activities commission of the Municipality of Milan, said that the utility must remain a publicly controlled company.
At the bottom of the main basket Telecom Italy loses 2,2%. CEO Marco Patuano said that the government's ultra-broadband plan does not completely clarify the future picture.
THE BRICK DANCE STARTS. AVERAGE IN RECOVERY
Mediobanca Securities has awakened the media sector. Analysts confirmed, on the occasion of the Media day with the managers of Hey Towers +1,61%, Rai, Sky and Mediaset -1,30% the overweight recommendation for the sector. They advance l'Espresso + 4,4% Rcs +2,5%. Stable Cairo communication + 0,09%.
The real estate sector is brilliant, on the wave of the awakening of mortgages driven by Qe. They fly Gabetti +18,85% and Cleansing +15,3%. Very good too Prelios +9,9% and Aedes +2%. Instead it goes down Fiera Milano -0,56%: Banca Akros reduced the rating on the stock to recover from hold, with a target price confirmed at 5,5 euro per share.
