Barcelona is holding its breath. Catalonia's independence referendum scheduled for Sunday, declared unconstitutional by the High Court, and now little more than a poll, will still be held. Unofficially, but with an important political value.
“If the turnout of the Catalans – a businessman from Barcelona tells Firstonline – will be around 2 million people, Madrid will not be able to turn a blind eye. He will have to take note of this and start talks with the Generalitat led by Artur Mas. I would also add that if the massive vote says yes to independence, the EU and Germany too will have to recognize the weight of the ballot box and summon Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy”.
In short, the feeling is that this forceful action by the Catalans will still have repercussions and consequences. Many in Spain are in favor of dialogue and détente. The hope, therefore, is that Madrid does not impose an "iron fist" and that it does not patrol the streets of Barcelona with the police to prevent the vote and demonstrations. After all, physical confrontation does not benefit anyone, much less Mariano Rajoy who has only to lose in this match.
The Catalans, in any case, have organized themselves in the best possible way: over 40 volunteers are involved, as well as hundreds of signature collection points. The independence movement is convinced that the turnout will be high, given that the "desire" for independence is transversal to society and affects all social categories. Even more so now, in times of crisis, where the unease about the excessive centrality of Madrid (despite the concessions of recent years) has significantly increased. As if to say that the status quo cannot continue and a change in Madrid-Catalonia relations is a must.
“We Catalans – adds the interlocutor – hope in negotiation, in dialogue between the central government and the Generalitat. That we arrive at a Constitutional Pact that recognizes the singularity of Catalonia, its weight in the country and its need for greater autonomy; in the management of finances that are more equitable, in the sovereignty of the Catalan language over the Castilian one, in culture…”. It is civil society that asks and demands it, but it is difficult to say how it will end.
Despite fears of secession, Madrid doesn't seem to be loosening the strings too easily. After all, Catalonia (it should be remembered that it contributes around 25% to the national GDP) has already obtained important concessions and offering new ones would push other regions (think of the Basque region) to protest and rebel. It would be better for Madrid to proceed step by step and above all to take time, especially if the result of the "maximum survey" were to be in gray hues.
After all, the general situation in Spain, while from an economic point of view it has undoubtedly improved compared to a couple of years ago, is certainly not beyond the ford. Growth is fragile and unemployment is still high. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy appears well in the saddle, but remains exposed to attacks from the opposition: the classic left embodied by a socialist party in an identity crisis, but also the independentists and now also the Podemos, heirs of the Indignados movement. To put a spoke in Rajoy's works there is also an exceptional testimonial: the singer Miguel Bosè with his song “Si se puede”. Not to mention the support for the Catalan referendum offered by Pep Guardiola, Bayern's winning coach and football icon not only in Barcelona, where he has collected triumphant successes.
It will depend on the degree of participation in the polls, but what is certain is that the Catalan referendum risks detonating the entire Spanish situation with important repercussions on the political system and on the future organization of the various regions of the country. We'll see in the next few hours.
