The calendar offers a fireworks finale to the year. Between Wednesday and Thursday the most important central bankers, from Jerome Powell a Christine Lagarde but also the governors of Bank of England as well as of Norway e Switzerland aThey will announce their rate decisions. But only Bern could announce news to slow down the rise of the franc. For the rest, confirmation of the cost of money at current levels, sufficient to drive rates towards the desired goal of 2 percent, is practically a given. Or at least so we hope.
Talking about financial markets it is never wise to let your guard down, especially in a hot, more than hot, geopolitical situation. The is looming COP 28 failure on the climate, the problems of China , Ue is still stuck on the topic of stability pact. Faced with these obstacles the Toro marks the pace waiting to resume the race.
Flat futures in the USA and Europe
Both Wall Street and European Futures open.
Interest rate euphoria pushed stock markets higher for the sixth week in a row, obscuring the very likely prospect of a future slowdown in corporate profit growth.
The biggest surprises of the week came from Europe. L'Eurostoxx 50 index (+2,4%, 4.523) reached the highest since August 2007, the Dax (+2,2%, 16.759) updated its historical record. The index FTSEMIB (+1,6%, 30.403) closed over the psychological threshold of 30 thousand points for the first time since 2008.
The monetary authorities should confirm the current level of rates but great emphasis will be given to the words of the two central bankers, Powell and Lagarde. We start again from: 4,24-year US Treasury at 4,75%, 2,27-year Treasury at 4,06%, 178-year German Bund at XNUMX%. Ten-year BTP at XNUMX%. Spread at XNUMX.
Bloomberg: Lowest growth since 2001
In the meantime, Bloomberg Economics wrote that the global economy is set to record the slower growth since the burst of the dotcom bubble (2001), apart from the crisis years of 2009 (Lehman Brothers) and 2020 (Covid). It is expected that the World GDP will grow by +2,7% in 2024, down from +3,1% this year.
In United States one is expected slight recession between now and the beginning of next year. A scenario that should favor the progressive recovery of bonds.
The fiftieth week of 2023 opens in Asia Pacific with mixed stock markets. TheNikkei index of Tokyo, +1,4%. The stock markets of South Korea and India are rising slightly. The China's stock markets are falling: Hang Seng of Hong Kong -1,7%, CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists -0,4%. On parity the Taiex of Taipei.
Pork puts Xi in crisis
In China there is always more deflation. Consumer prices, including those of pork meat, a basic element of nutrition, fell month on month by 0,5% in November, from -0,2% in October. Producer prices also fell more than expected.
The Chinese Communist Party's top decision-making body said Friday that the fiscal policy of the country “must be moderately strengthened” to stimulate economic recovery, as reported by the Xinhua agency. China's Politburo said it will continue to implement "proactive" fiscal policies and "prudent" monetary policies next year in an effort to support domestic demand. Chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Friday's Politburo meeting analyzed the economic work to be undertaken in 2024. The body pledged to effectively strengthen "economic vitality".
Scandal in Tokyo, slows down the yen
Lo Yen weakens for the second consecutive session at 145,16 on the dollar due to the fading of expectations of a short-term change in monetary policy. On Friday it completed its fourth positive week in a row (+1,3%). In recent days, some statements from the central bank's leaders had been interpreted as the beginning of a change of direction.
More or less the same day one scandal over the management of public funds had politically weakened the current of the majority party once led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the one most in favor of the monetary stimuli carried out by the central bank under the previous governor Kuroda.
Mizuho Securietis believes that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in a crisis of consensus in the country, may not like an overly hawkish attitude from the Bank of Japan.
Bitcoin collapses, the gold rush ends
In Asia, theYet another Bitcoin crash. In the early stages of the night it collapsed to 40.521 dollars from 44 thousand, for no specific reason. Bets on the imminent arrival of the SEC's green light for spot ETFs on Bitcoin have not found any confirmation for now and it is highly probable that the +66% achieved since the beginning of October, in the prospect of a change of pace by the FED, has convinced some investor to take profit.
The week of historical gold record it closed with a decline partly linked to strong data on the US labor market, which cooled expectations of an interest rate cut at the beginning of 2024. New non-agricultural jobs in November were 199 thousand, the consensus was he expected 185.000, from 150.000 the previous month. In the private sector, there were 150 thousand new jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 3,70% from 3,90%.
US purchases of oil
Si revives oil: Brent at 76,3 dollars. Recent price weakness has attracted demand from the United States, which has purchased up to 3 million barrels of crude oil for delivery in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in March 2024.
Morgan Stanley promotes utilities
Little news after the long bridge. On shields Stellantis on which Morgan Stanley raises its target price at 24 euro.
Getting very: Morgan Stanley cut the rating to 'underweight' from 'equal weight'.
A2A, Snam, Terna: Morgan Stanley has revised the target price of utilities. A2A rises to 2,2 euros, Snam to 4,6 euros, Terna to 7,2 euros.
