The Bank of Italy has revised upwards this year's GDP forecast to plus 3,2%, mainly reflecting the dynamics already acquired. But at the same time it changed the estimate for 2023 downwards to plus 1,3% and reduced that for 2024 to plus 1,7%. The data is contained in the last Economic bulletin of the Bank of Italy and concern the "baseline scenario", in which it is assumed that the conflict in Ukraine will continue throughout 2022, without however leading to a total interruption of energy supplies from Russia.
Bankitalia peak estimates with adverse scenario
Then there is the "adverse scenario". An escalation of the war in Ukraine such as to determine a stop to Russian energy supplies, which would have very heavy repercussions: "Production interruptions in industrial activities, characterized by higher energy intensity, higher raw material prices, a stronger impact on uncertainty and confidence and a weaker dynamic of foreign demand”, notes Bank of Italy.
In this case, the GDP would increase "by less than 1 percent in 2022" and then "decrease in the next year by almost 2 percentage points". Inflation would reach 9,3 per cent in 2022 and would remain high in 2023 as well, at 7,4, only to fall markedly in 2024.
