With the completion of the takeover bid by MPS on Mediobanca, the market's eyes are once again focused on Bpm bank which, having escaped the passivity rule due to the offer – which later failed – by Unicredit, could soon return to being a protagonist of the Italian banking risk. There are two options under consideration: the third pole with Monte dei Paschi (and Mediobanca) or, and this is the hypothesis on which we are focusing most in the last few days, the wedding with Crédit Agricole Italia, 76% controlled by Crédit Agricole, which in turn holds a 19,8% stake in Banco and has already asked the ECB to allow it to rise above 20%. And here comes the "but," coming from the mouth of Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti. The Golden Power? "It applies to them too," he said, responding to those who asked if the government had "political objections" to a possible Italian-French merger.
Banco Bpm and Crédit Agricole's plans
The latest rumours on the complicated wedding project between Banco Bpm and Crédit Agricole Italia claim that the former will take over the latter for 5 billion euros, more than six times 2020 earnings. The plan, he underlines Mf-Milan Finance, would be based on several levers: the payment would be made in cash and the existing distribution agreements would be extended. But above all, the share of Banco Bpm held by Crédit Agricole would rise from 19,9% to 24,9%, below the takeover threshold, and the parent company would also receive shares in Agos Ducato and above all in Soul.
In addition to the financial aspect, there will also be the one relating to the governanceAnd in this context, the first signs could arrive next spring, when Banco BPM's board will have to be renewed. "The new rules of the Consolidated Law on Finance, approved last year, will make it more difficult for the outgoing board to submit a list," he highlights. mf, according to which the easiest way to avoid the obstacles posed by the new legislation would be toto present a single list One that includes names capable of satisfying all major shareholders, both Italian and French. This includes not only Crédit Agricole, but also the foundations and pension funds that currently hold approximately 6,5% of the stake, which was conferred in a deal. One solution could be to confirm Castagna as head of the Milanese bank, handing the presidency over to the French.
The Golden Power Knot and Giorgetti's Words
However, we need to understand what the Government thinks about it. And it is precisely for this reason that, as reported by MessengerCastagna is expected to be in Rome today. Meetings are scheduled with the executive branch and the supervisory authorities to test the waters and gauge the mood prevailing between Palazzo Chigi and Via XX Settembre.
The question is only one: on what basis should the executive support an operation between Banco Bpm and Crédit Agricole after having said, several times and without appeal, No to Unicredit? The government has excellent relations with both the Neapolitan manager and with Crédit Agricole, which in August, through Amundi, also helped scuttle Mediobanca's takeover bid for Banca Generali. But that's enough to say. yes to the French of Crédit Agricole and after having said no to the Italian of Unicredit, considering that this operation, like the previous one, would have at the center Soul, one of the main players in Italian managed savings?
The answer—according to Giorgetti's words before entering the Senate to respond to the parliamentary motions on the draft budget—would appear to be "no."
“I have no political objections, I I have a law that I have to enforce, just as I enforced it for others. I will enforce it on them. There is a law and it applies to everyone“, he responded to a question regarding the existence of possible “political objections” to a possible merger between Banco Bpm and Crédit Agricole Italia. And to the further question whether he also envisages a use of the golden powerGiorgetti replied: “I am referring to the law, precisely that one.”
With a decree dated April 18, the government applied its golden power to UniCredit's takeover bid for Banco BPM. At the time, using its special powers, the government asked the Italian government to maintain the weight of Anima Holding's investments in securities issued by Italian entities and to support their development. This restriction was justified by the Prime Minister's office as a requirement to ensure the stability of asset management and support the domestic capital market. Therefore, the same rules could apply to Crédit Agricole.
