What are the odds of winning the Superenalotto? Few. Very few. And yet, after more than a year of waiting and 200 unsuccessful extractions, the 6th has arrived, giving a lucky gentleman from Vibo Valentia 163.538.706 €. Until yesterday, it was the highest jackpot up for grabs on planet Earth (even higher than the famous American "Powerball", stopped at 150 million dollars). Today, however, it has become the second win ever in the history of Superenalotto, after the 178 million awarded in October 2010.
The name of the winner, as always, remains in obscurity, while the headlines end up with the owner of the tobacconist's shop where the blessed card was played. It's Mr. Lo Bianco and he hasn't the faintest idea which of his clients has just become a multi-millionaire. But a thought turns to him anyway: "We hope you remember us". Everything as per script.
But, we were saying, how many chances are there of getting 6 in the Superenalotto? According to the Sisal tables, there is one chance in 623 million (to be precise one in 622.614.630). It is more realistic, or less surreal, to bet on 5+1: in that case you have a chance on 103.769.105. Easy, right? Thinking about it risks a headache. But someone has done the math, finding examples that can give an idea of the true meaning of these numbers.
Some time ago Roberto Natalini, mathematician of the Cnr, explained in an interview with "Il Giornale" that the arrival of the Apocalypse in 20 years is much more probable than 6 at the Superenalotto. According to the astronomers of the National Research Center, in fact, there is a one in 40.000 chance that asteroid 2036 Apophis will hit our planet in 99942. "The probability that the impact will occur is very low - says Natalini -, but it is in any case enormously higher than that of guessing the 6 numbers".
Not only that: the monthly Focus explains that it is more likely to find a cash machine, try a random Pin e guess the exact sequence which allows you to withdraw. Such a feat would succeed once in 90.000. But it would also be theft, so it's much better to challenge the Apocalypse with the Superenalotto.
