Orcel, Unicredit: M&A in its DNA but only if it yields at least 15%. Extraordinary operation in sight for the CEO's second mandate

The second term of Andrea Orcell driving unicredit, which the mid-April meeting will confirm as number one of the Piazzale Gae Aulenti bank, will not be a mandate of ordinary administration but in the name of growth. Everyone expects a high blow from what the financial community considers the Ronaldo of M&A. And Orcel will not disappoint them. He has already made it clear at the European Financials Conference in Morgan Stanley from the other day. “It would be disappointing – argued the Roman banker who as the CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, Charles Messina, finds himself, by a curious coincidence, leading a bank strongly rooted in Milan - if the rigid criteria established by Unicredit to evaluate potential acquisitions would prevent the bank from using at least some of the large excess capital in this way.” That is: returning part of the excess capital to shareholders instead of using it to make a quality acquisition would be a disappointment, especially for Orcel who has been scrutinizing the market for months and looking for prey to put in the basket. But not at all costs. The CEO of Unicredit has repeated it many times and confirmed it yesterday too: acquisitions are made not for the sake of it but if they create value and if they guarantee a return to the predatory bank of at least 15%. Are there such opportunities in Italy? Yes, from Bpm bank al Monte dei Paschi now healed or ad Azimuth, while integration with Mediobanca which would ensure the control of Generali but it would end up diluting the shareholdings of Unicredit shareholders. And outside Italy? Commerz it is always tempting even if it doesn't bring good luck to those who approach it, but the large Balkan area where the presence of Unicredit has its own history should not be overlooked.