Navalnyi in today's Russia: where is Putin going?

Who is it Alexey Navalnyi? A new Sakharov? Or the Trotsky of the Putin era? Nikita Khrushchev's granddaughter, recently interviewed on the fate of the great accuser of the "Tsar", begins to think that she will end up with the latter, rather than that of the first. “They will try to eliminate it at any cost”, said the professor of International Relations at New School of New York, now in Moscow on sabbatical. She too participates in the demonstrations for the release of the Russian politician who made opposition to Putin her reason for living. And like all the other Russians she was amazed by the "mildness" of the sentence that the Moscow court decided for Navalnyi: 3 years and 5 months, which decrease to 2 years and 8 months, given that the defendant has already served 10 months at home.

"Mild"? Were they seriously “mild”? the reasoning is this: power can do what it wants, now show generosity, now tighten its grip to the point of cruelty. In short, it could have been worse. It is clear to everyone that Navalnyi is a political prisoner. The condemnation he suffered is clearly a pretext: struck because he had escaped probation by not appearing at the supervisory judge. And how could he have done, Navalnyi himself recalled in the courtroom, given that he was in a coma after being poisoned by former KGB men? On the other hand, the same sentence on probation for a case of embezzlement in the Russian branch of the French group Yves Rocher it had been defined as "politically motivated" by the European Court of Human Rights.

The facts date back to 2014. Navalnyi and his brother Oleg were found guilty of reversal and laundering of two branches of the French cosmetics company. The fraud, according to the indictment, involved 30 million rubles, equal to 330 thousand euros, stolen from the company in the form of undue commissions. The two brothers turned to the Strasbourg court which called the whole process "arbitrary and unreasonable", even condemning Moscow to pay compensation for the Navalnyi. Fresh water for the Russian Supreme Court, which has ignored the European sentence and has once again put Putin's opponent under accusation.

And yet neither the "arbitrary" trial nor Navalnyi's fate had made a breakthrough in the hearts of Russians up to now. Alexey's popularity, like that of every other dissident in Russia, has always been greater abroad than at home. And it is for this reason that Putin can still face with impunity against what he calls "Western interference" in Russian affairs.

Now Navalnyi is in Matrosskaja Tiscina prison, the historic federal penitentiary north of Moscow. But he risks being deported to any prison in the immense Russian territory, once the sentence is final, after the appeal. “And it will be there for a long time,” believes Catherine Bolton, a former Moscow correspondent for the Financial Times and author of a beautiful book on the magic circle of the tsar, "Putin's men", published in Italy by La nave di Teseo. The only hope for something to change, in her opinion, is the tightening of sanctions and mass demonstrations. That's what Navalnyi hopes too. In truth, he, as a convinced nationalist, focus on demonstrations. “If only 3% of Russians took part, they would fall like a house of cards,” he used to say.

In short, it would be enough for a single million people to take to the streets to force Putin to give up. After all, it is the history of Russia: even a small handful of Bolsheviks, in 1917, managed to shock the world by putting into practice a theory, communism, which, until then, had only been found in a philosophy book. And, ironically of history, as then, it was always from Germany that another (small) Lenin left, not in an armored train, but in an airplane and in full view of all. For the moment, to be honest, Navalnyi doesn't seem able to undermine anything, let alone Putin's power. But this time the Russians did not remain indifferent: the arrest at the exit of the plane of a man who had been poisoned four months earlier has aroused great emotion in the country, prompting hundreds of thousands of people to protest, in small and large cities. And, paradoxically, the demonstrations in the smaller towns have had more effect than the large numbers of protests in the big cities, Moscow and Petersburg on the front lines. Like those 6 people from Ribinsk, north of Moscow; oi 18 of Tula, the hometown of military industry, south of the capital; oi 122 of Vladivostok, silent sentinel on the border with China, in the far east of the country.

A sign of impatience, not in favor of Navalnyi, say attentive observers, but against the same faces that have represented the country for over twenty years. In short, against Putin's policy, which doesn't make you prouder or even more serene. How could this happen? Putinism could be divided into three phases:

1. the first was of expectation, when Yeltsin, in 1999, chose Putin as his successor. The Russians know that the best and worst politicians can emerge from the ranks of the KGB: would he have been part of the former or the latter?
2. After waiting it came sincere support: the booming economy, driven by the high price of oil, enriched the Russians, while on the international level the country returned to being the protagonist, putting a foot back in the Mediterranean after so many years, intervening first in Syria and later in Libya. Golden era culminating in the eradication of Chechen terrorism and the snatching of Crimea from Ukraine (but the Russians call it recovery from the motherland), events that made Putin's popularity skyrocket. Patience if the Western world condemns the annexation of Crimea with sanctions (the Russians soon come to terms with it) and patience even if there is practically no opposition within the country (even that one is used to). Meanwhile, the capital explodes with beauty. Anyone who has arrived in Moscow in recent years has found an extraordinary city, at the same time as fascinating as in the time of the Tsars (the real ones and the communist ones) and extraordinarily modern. Metro and train lines have multiplied to put the capital in communication with the rest of the country. Parks and super skyscrapers have increased, while the biggest brands in the world of luxury are massing along the downtown streets. And now?
3. The phase that the country is experiencing now could be that of sunset. The sun is still fiery red, as powerful as ever, but it is known that it is destined to disappear. Covid has dealt a severe blow to the tsar's ambitions. The economy is experiencing a moment of great difficulty: although the drop in GDP forecast for 2020 (-3%) is laughable compared to that of other European countries (starting with Italy, with its -8,8%) , it is precisely the economic data that most frightens Putin. And the fear is that Navalnyi, or someone on his behalf, could take advantage of it. So far the Russians have (almost) not noticed capitalism, not even in the initial stages of the accumulation of enormous public wealth in the hands of a very few ras of the CPSU. The vast majority continued to be accompanied by the State from the cradle to death, with support for buying a house, subsidies for survival, very low tuition fees for attending universities, pensions at a young age. Now it is no longer possible. The first blow to the pickaxe was given to pensions: Putin was forced to raise the age requirement to 65 for men and 63 for women. Meanwhile, the anti-poverty plan has failed and the announced aid to small and medium-sized entrepreneurs has not arrived.

So, what to do while waiting for the usual conditions for change to ripen?

The Russians, especially those of the silent intelligentsia, have for the moment returned to their kitchens to tell each other jokes that make fun of power. The only difference with Brezhnev's times is that they now run on WhatsApp. And that, at least for the moment, you don't go to jail for so little. Take the latest, on the story of the luxurious villa in Gelengik, a tourist resort on the Black Sea, which according to Navalnyi's accusations, released in a video seen on Youtube over one hundred million times, Putin would have built. The story starts with the (authentic) revelation of Putin's karate friend, the entrepreneur Rottemberg, that the villa belongs to him. Other confessions by well-known men follow, clearly absurd, up to that of Putin, who does not know where Gelengik is. The story concludes by announcing that a search has been launched to clarify who Putin's daughters are, since he simply calls them "women".

Magnificent helplessness, but also sublime and furious patience of the Russian people.