“Something new always comes from Africa” wrote Pliny the Elder more than 2000 years ago, referring to what the Romans considered Africa, i.e. the prosperous northern regions bordering the Mediterranean. However, sub-Saharan Africa has always remained a mysterious land, both in Pliny's time when it was indicated on maps with the epithet "hic sunt leones" (lions live over there), and in more recent times where the The Westerner first tried to explore it, then, in the grip of a positivist fury, to civilize it with slavery and conquest and finally refused to understand it by simplistically juxtaposing it with the image of a malnourished child or a gunfight in the dust.
But something new always arrives from Africa and the regions south of the largest desert in the world represent a unique and essential economic opportunity in the medium term for Italian companies wishing to increase their turnover. This was revealed in a recent letter published by the Ambrosetti Club entitled "Africa from a forgotten continent to a new frontier" in which there is a geopolitical and economic analysis which highlights the great strategic importance of the immense region. According to what emerges from the study, a well thought out and planned investment could lead in a very short time, 1 or 2 years, to establish itself as a leader in the local market. Gone are the days when foreign investment was mostly concentrated in the field of raw material extraction. For ten years now, sub-Saharan Africa has grown at an annual rate of more than 5%. And it is estimated that in the next 50 years it will be the area of greatest growth worldwide, as well as being the only part of the world that will experience a real population boom.
In many countries institutions are strengthening, political stability is increasing and it is foreseen that the middle class, a potential market of 250 million people which is already emerging with its specific consumption characteristics in large urban centres, will form a solid basis for investment in these countries. The study identifies 14 high-potential economies, in which there is a concrete possibility of reaching certain markets as the first entrant. In these countries, classified by size of GDP, annual growth rate and diversification of exports as an index of the degree of maturity of the economy. Potential for investments are present in all sectors, from the construction of infrastructures, from the production of retail consumer goods, to large-scale distribution, up to innovative productions with high technological development.
But Africa's potential has not gone unnoticed. At the forefront are the Chinese, who have glimpsed the new frontier in the cradle of humanity to extend their economic and political influence. China is currently the continent's top trading partner with 14% of total trade, up 700% over the past 10 years. However, the space for investment remains very broad and it will be up to Italian companies to seize the deal.
The letter from The European House-Ambrosetti Club
