Despite the worsening health situation worrying the financial markets, investor sentiment is improving in Italy. According to research by UBS Investor, optimism towards the Italian economy is on the rise in July, with 89% of Italian investors saying they are confident in the country's chances of recovery, against 83% recorded in the first quarter of the year.
THE REASONS FOR CONCERN
However, there is certainly no shortage of reasons for concern. In fact, the analysis shows that 48% of investors are still worried about the spread of Covid-19, while 50% identify climate change as a source of alarm and 46% have fears about the aging of the population.
INFLATION
As regards inflation expectations, according to the report, only 31% of Italian investors believe that the price trend will undergo a rapid increase in the next 12 months. A large majority, as much as 58%, thinks instead that inflation will remain essentially stable, while 11% even states that they expect a deceleration in prices.
STOCK MARKET
On the stock side, the majority of Italian investors (83%) say they are optimistic about the market trend over the next 6 months. Over this time horizon, 39% of respondents would like to increase the shares in their portfolio, while 50% intend to maintain the same shareholding and only the remaining 11% intend to reduce it.
REAL ESTATE MARKET
Shifting the focus again, 66% of investors believe that this is an excellent time to invest in the real estate market by buying a house.
A LOOK AT GLOBAL DATA
Globally, investors globally believe that inflation will accelerate over the next 12 months and therefore expect their portfolios to adjust. Entrepreneurs see the benefits of the practices adopted in favor of sustainability: 61% who believe that such solutions can generate more revenue. Finally, cyber security is the top concern for global investors, ahead of politics, climate change, tax changes and Covid.
COMPANIES IN ITALY
The prospects are looking good also from the business point of view. Expectations of recovery have slowed down liquidity needs, to the point that in the second quarter of this year, credit applications recorded a contraction of -38,5% on an annual basis, realigning themselves to the levels of 2019. This is what emerges from an analysis of the loan applications registered on Eurisc, the Credit Information System managed by Crif.
“Since the end of 2019, the unexpected and violent shock caused by the pandemic had led to a marked increase in credit applications from companies to meet short-term financial needs - comments Simone Capecchi, executive director of Crif - But in second quarter of 2021, thanks to the prospects for economic recovery, there is a trend reversal. At the same time, the average amount of loans has increased significantly, confirming a growing propensity of companies to split requests less, primarily addressing the reference institutions with which they maintain regular relationships”.
