It's a positive 2025 for now for the Latin American Stock Exchanges, with the exception of Argentina, which is instead collapsing after the 2024 rally, due to economic growth that isn't taking off as expected and growing distrust of President Javier Milei. In nominal terms, Chile and Colombia are leading the way, but the strongest stock market remains Brazil's, despite the flop of the Petrobras giant. The most promising appears to be Mexico's, which hit an all-time high in May: evidently, President Claudia Sheinbaum's policies continue to convince investors, despite the difficulties created by US tariffs.
BRAZIL
The index iBovespa of San Paolo has gained over 20.000 points since the beginning of the year, or 17,7%, reaching an all-time high above 140.000 points. The performance of Petrobras, which recorded an unusual -9% but confirmed itself as the champion of dividends: although the government, which is the majority shareholder of the oil giant, has imposed a slight cut in the coupon to make room for investments, Petrobras continues to generate cash flow and analysts also forecast a dividend yield between 10% and 12%In recent years, the company has even been the world's leading provider of shareholder generosity, a golden goose that politicians have decided to limit, and this has evidently driven away some investors.
Among the most interesting stocks of the year is another former state-owned energy company, which was privatized three years ago: Eletrobras It gained 40%, including 24% in August, benefiting from growing energy demand and, according to analysts, the impending cycle of interest rate cuts. It also performed well the Vale mining, which has seen a 10% increase since the beginning of 2025 and is pushing to include iron, its main extracted product, in the government's plan for the protection of strategic minerals, which includes attractive incentives for operators. Among the banks, the most notable is the fintech Nubank, which until May also had Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway among its shareholders and which gained 79%. Itaù also did very well with +48%, while Bank of Brazil it lost 7%.
ARGENTINA
The honeymoon between Argentine President Javier Milei and the financial markets seems to be over.Merval Index of Buenos Aires, which had been by far the first in the world in terms of percentage growth in 2024, with a gain of 114% in dollars and even 174% if calculated in pesos, has instead become the tail light in the first half of this year. While Frankfurt's DAX soared with a 36% gain, the Argentine stock market lost 20% in nominal terms and 30% when converted into dollars. Considering the period from January 2nd to today, the Merval has lost almost 23% in nominal terms. In 2025, the only stock to gain is Southern Gas Transporter (+4,3%), which had already been one of the best performers of 2024 (up 46% year-over-year). The turnaround is due to several factors: first, a natural decline after last year's rally, but there was more to it.
Le GDP forecasts This year's inflation rates have been significantly cut by the IMF and the data recorded so far have been lower than expected, which has inevitably dampened the enthusiasm of the markets, demonstrating that the draconian policies of inflation reduction have indeed brought results on the data itself, but not the hoped-for effects on the economic recovery. And then distrust in Milei grows: last February, when the $Libra cryptocurrency scandal, personally sponsored by the president, the stock market lost 6% in a single session. Then there were ups and downs but in August the trend was absolutely bearish, following the new scandal which involved Milei's entourage, especially her sister Karina accused of taking bribes on the purchase of drugs for the National Agency for Disability.
MEXICO, CHILE, AND COLOMBIA
At the Latin American level, the stock markets of Chile and Colombia fared decidedly better, with the first half of this year seeing the best in the area for growth rate, even better than Brazil, albeit with much smaller volumes: the Chilean Ipsa index grew by 30,4% in dollars, the Colombian MSCI Colcap by 31,6%. The Mexican stock market also performed very well, gaining 2025% in 19 and last May reaching a historic record of almost 60.000 points. The policies of claudia sheinbaum They are therefore convincing investors: despite the tariffs imposed by the United States, Mexico appears to have a government capable of implementing the right countermeasures and confirming the solid growth rate of an economy that is indeed closely tied to Washington, but is beginning to open up to China and to a domestic development model, starting with tourism.
Proof of this is that one of the best titles of the year is Pacific Airport Group, with a gain of 19%, ahead of the group specialized in infrastructure construction (mainly roads and airports) Pinfra and the bank Banorte. The 2025 champion, however, remains Penoles Industries, which has more than doubled its value since the beginning of the year, gaining 137%. The group controls Fresnillo, the Mexican company, world leader in silver and number 2 in gold, listed on the London Stock Exchange and which in 2025 it is the best title of the London Stock Exchange.
