The negotiations on public finances between the Renzi government and the European Commission seem to have reached a turning point. According to the rumors reported by Alberto D'Argenio in La Repubblica, for this year Brussels will not ask Italy for any encore maneuver, but only a correction of the two billion accounts.
Furthermore, the operation will prove to be painless for the Executive in Rome, which will cover the hole in part with administrative measures to cut spending and in part by drawing on a one-billion-euro hoard that Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and the Minister of Treasure Pier Carlo Padoan have kept since last December.
In return, Europe will grant our country a further margin of flexibility on the 2017 deficit-GDP ratio, in addition to the unreserved go-ahead for the 2016 Stability Law, on which judgment is expected in May.
But the last word has not yet been said. Everything will depend on the forecasts on the performance of the Italian economy: the latest estimates by the EU Commission speak of a +1,4% for the Italian GDP in 2016, but on Thursday the OECD has drastically cut the estimates of our country's growth, which this year according to the Organization will stop at +1%.
If in May, in the spring forecasts, the EU Executive also revised downwards the estimates on the performance of the Italian economy, then the entire agreement would risk falling apart.
