Moody's confirms its rating on Italy. The US agency maintained its our sovereign debt rating at Baa2, with a stable outlook, consolidating the promotion achieved in November last year, when Italy rose from Baa3 to Baa2 after 23 years. This confirmation comes as Italy's growth outlook shows some signs of improvement and the public finances situation continues to be closely monitored by the markets.
The message coming from Moody's is that of an economy that, despite growing slowly, continues to show a certain capacity for resilience. For 2026, GDP estimates are revised upwards to +0,8%, a figure that signals better performance than previous forecasts. Other recent analyses have also raised expectations: Prometeia, just yesterday, raised its forecast for Italian GDP in 2026 to +0,9%, from the previous +0,7%.
Growth remains limited, however, and it does not erase the structural weaknesses of the Italian economyProductivity, demographics, investment, and above all the high level of public debt continue to be the main factors of concern. Moody's therefore looks not only at economic performance, but also at the country's ability to maintain a credible public finances trajectory over time.
The Baa2 represents a rating level in the investment grade area and places Italy two notches above the speculative range. This is an important factor for the government bond market, because the rating contributes to the assessment of the risk associated with sovereign debt and therefore the conditions under which the state can obtain financing. This confirmation also comes after that of Fitch, which on September 11th maintained Italy's rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook. The main agencies' assessments therefore show, at least for now, a substantially stable assessment of Italy's creditworthiness.
However, the issue of public finances remains. Istat confirmed a deficit equal to 3,1% of GDP in 2025, yet above the 3% threshold required by European rules. For Italy, this means that deficit reduction is progressing, but it is still insufficient to quickly close the European excessive deficit procedure. It is precisely the balance between growth and public finances that is the decisive variable for the future of the rating. Growth of 0,8% helps make the debt-to-GDP ratio more sustainable, but it alone does not solve the problem of a very high debt stock.
For this reason, Moody's confirmation can be interpreted primarily as an assessment of continuity: Italy maintains the level achieved with the 2025 upgrade, but will have to demonstrate in the coming months that it can transform its current stability into more robust growth and a credible debt reduction path. For the markets, therefore, the news is not simply a confirmation of the Baa2 rating. The key point is that, despite modest growth, high debt, and a deficit still above 3%, Italy maintains an investment grade rating and a stable outlookA snapshot that rewards the stability of the financial framework, but leaves open the question of reforms and the economy's ability to grow faster in the medium term.
