Promethea revises upwards the estimates of GDP for 2026 which is now expected to rise by 0,9 % Compared to the previous forecast of 0,7%, its report released Friday emphasizes that "economic activity held up even in the spring months," surprising on the upside: "In the second quarter, GDP grew by 0,2% compared to the previous quarter and by 1% on an annual basis, against the forecast of substantial stagnation." “It's a more favorable picture than we expected.”The good news comes above all from household consumption, especially from expenditure on services.
Prometeia revises Italy's GDP upwards
“Prometeia's forecast is that growth continued during the summer as well,” explains the report entitled Disinflation postponed? Energy, prices, and monetary policy in transition. "The" would have contributed to supporting it good progress of the tourist season, the increase of exports also reported by the most recent data and a substantial stability of theIndustrial activity“. “The knock-on effect thus allows us to improve, albeit slightly compared to July, the forecasts for 2027 as well: a deceleration in the rate of GDP growth compared to the previous year, but with a +0,6% and no longer +0,4%. The lower support for investments financed by the Pnrr However, this should be counterbalanced by a more expansionary fiscal policy stance."
Prometeia: Estimates include budget, elections, Italian government bonds, and higher debt costs.
“With a debt around 138% of GDP and a average duration of the securities of approximately seven years, the 50-60 basis point rise in bond yields Italian government bonds adds approximately 2 billion euros higher interest rates in the first year, and then gradually increase as the debt is refinanced. To avoid this for Italy price shocks turns into a public finance shock, the public deficit should subsequently decline again, reaching 2,9% of GDP in 2028 and 2,8% in 2029", Prometeia estimates in its latest report on the Italian economy.
“The recent failure to exit early from the European infringement procedure for excessive deficit has complicated the path of the Budget maneuver, calling into question the activation of the announced flexibility measures for energy and defense." However, he explains, "there will be strong pressure to support incomes and investments, especially on the eve of the elections and in the energy and digital transition that operators are required to undertake. This could lead, ex post, to a temporary deviation from the deficit reduction trajectory."
The Prometeia scenario in fact incorporates an expansion of the public budget that will bring the deficit to 3,2% of GDP in 2027. The estimate implies relief which would reduce the tax burden on families by approximately 0,2 percentage points overall, the increase in some social benefits and a strengthening of interventions in favour of the energy transition, assuming that they will be able to take advantage of the flexibility foreseen by the European CommissionThe interventions will continue in the following years – with an estimated net impact of approximately 0,3 percentage points of GDP on the deficit – but will have to deal with increasingly stringent budget constraints.
