It closes Poste Italiane's takeover bid for 100% of Tim and according to initial calculations, the company led by Matteo Del Fante now holds 85,82% of the capital. Membership has risen to 65,72% of the capital (i.e., 82,2542% of the shares subject to the offer); adding the stake that Poste already holds in Telecom Italia, the total stake of the company led by Matteo Del Fante in the telephone group therefore rises to approximately 85,82%.
While having significantly exceeded the threshold of 66,67% which the company had previously placed (and then eliminated) and despite the acceleration compared to yesterday (when Poste was at 75,6%), Post office is just shy of 90%, a threshold that would have triggered the squeeze out that allows the shareholder who reaches a high capital threshold to forcibly purchase the remaining shares of minority shareholders and proceed with a quick delisting.
Now various scenarios open up If the delisting goal is to be achieved quickly, Poste could buy TIM on the market or merge it with another subsidiary, such as Poste Mobile, for example. This would allow it to pay out cash to the shareholders who did not participate in the takeover bid.
One thing to consider is that Poste now starts from a very solid position of controlWith 85,82% of the capital, Telecom Italia's residual free float has fallen to just over 14%. The result is therefore very close to the 90% target, even though that threshold was not reached through the public offering.
The transaction began with a consideration consisting of a cash component and Poste Italiane shares, later enhanced with an increase in the cash component. The final consideration envisaged by the offer was raised to 1,97 euros cash plus 0,218 Poste shares for each TIM share delivered. The reopening of the deadline from September 21st to 25th therefore had a decisive impact on the final result: in the first phase, Poste had reached 66,627% of the capital, while in the final days there was a sharp acceleration in subscriptions.
Adesso the market will look above all at Poste's next moves and the possibility of reaching 90%. It also remains to be seen what path will be chosen for the industrial integration between the two groups, which Poste had identified as one of the central objectives of the transaction. For TIM shareholders who were excluded from the offer, therefore, the game is not necessarily over: reaching 85,82% significantly alters the corporate balance and further reduces the shareholding remaining on the market.
