Companies remain positive about the near future, despite international tensions and high energy prices. For 2026, 27,5% of companies expect turnover growth of at least 3%, 19,8% expected an increase in exports and 15,8% in employment. This trend is also confirmed for the 2027 forecasts: 25,9% of companies expect an increase in turnover, 20,6% in exports, and 13% in employment.
More businesses led by young people are more confident: for 2026, 37,6% expect growth in turnover, 34,8% in foreign sales and 24,3% in employment, while for next year the shares stand at 33,3%, 34,1% and 21,4% respectively. This is what emerges from theanalysis by Unioncamere and its Tagliacarne Study Center on a sample of approximately 4.500 manufacturing and service companies with between 5 and 499 employees.
However, the surge in energy bills on business costs It concerns more than 70% of companies, and 43,4% of them expect a reduction in profit margins. This is also why, within the next three years, 36,1% of companies plan to make green investments, and 38% plan to invest in digital.
“Companies seem to have learned to live with the permanent uncertainty of the international scenario, reacting more quickly and adapting their strategies to a constantly evolving scenario”. This is what was underlined by president of Unioncamere, Andrea Prete, who added, "Despite the uncertainty, entrepreneurial confidence has remained essentially stable over the last three years, following the decline recorded in 2022 following the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In this context, rising energy costs are one of the most concrete consequences of international instability. It's therefore not surprising that over a third of businesses are responding by investing in green practices, especially through energy-saving measures, a choice that combines sustainability and competitiveness."
I20% of companies expect a decline in business in 2026 and uncertainty increases in 2027
Overall, the business community is proving resilient: 27,5% of companies expect to close their turnover this year with a positive sign compared to 2025, and over half of companies aim to maintain their turnover. But 20,1% have more difficulties and estimate a decline in businessExpectations for 2027 remain substantially in line, with 25,9% predicting growth and 50,4% predicting stagnation. Meanwhile, the share of companies expecting a decline in their turnover appears lower, at 7,1%. However, this reflects increased uncertainty, with 16,7% unsure of what to expect.
Only One in five companies will be investing in Artificial Intelligence by 2028
To support their business, companies will continue to invest in digital, particularly in Artificial Intelligence. 21,8% of businesses have already invested in AI between 2023 and 2025 or intend to do so in the next three years. Overall, over the last three years 44,6% of companies have adopted digital 4.0 technologies in their business, and 38% plan to do so between 2026 and 2028.
