ECONOMIC HANDS FOR SEPTEMBER 2026 – Why does the global economy continue to grow despite headwinds? What are the reasons for the continued rise in interest rates? What are the repercussions of the sharp rise in crude oil prices? Why are the currencies of Japan and…
On Saturday 12th on FIRSTonline the September economic hands to try to decipher an economic and financial phase full of uncertainties like never before
Italian GDP estimates for 2026 have improved slightly, but the Bank of Italy is urging caution: the international context remains uncertain and a worsening of the crisis between the US and Iran could slow growth, consumption and investments.
Extreme heat is no longer just a meteorological phenomenon: it is becoming a structural economic risk. According to Allianz Trade, by 2030, GDP losses could reach up to 5–7% in the most exposed countries such as Italy, France, Germany, and Spain.
THE ECONOMIC HANDS OF JUNE 2026. The effects of the Iran-US agreement (assuming it's signed and reopens the Strait of Hormuz). The stalemate in negotiations continues to weigh heavily. If America isn't laughing, Europe...
From the Confindustria Assembly to the Bank of Italy meeting, the week just ended was filled with food for thought on the state and future of Italy, but the most compelling words were those of the Governor...
In his Concluding Remarks, the Governor of the Bank of Italy calls on Italy to "determine" to free itself from the shackles of low growth and stagnant wages: this is the right solution for our country, and one that has so far been lacking. Also essential is the appeal...
In the annual Article IV report dedicated to Italy, economists underline how the emergency measures on fuel risk weighing on public finances without guaranteeing truly effective support for the most vulnerable households.
Italy is among the countries hardest hit by the war in the Middle East, but the entire Eurozone is slowing down. The deficit/GDP ratio will be below 3% in 2026.
Despite the slowdown and a favorable external environment (primarily the Eurozone), the Polish economy is among the best performing in Europe and maintains a solid growth rate above 3%. Consumption remains the main driver of the economy, even if…
On Saturday 16th May on FIRSTonline the May economic news by Fabrizio Galimberti will be available and will answer the main current issues: from the economic situation to structural changes, from rates to currencies and stock markets.
It's not out of the question that the government might consider an electoral budget plan for the final year of its term, but giving in to populist pension solutions, even if they're not unwelcome to the opposition, would be extremely dangerous for the stability of the pension system...
In its latest monthly bulletin, the ECB forecasts that the war will reduce global GDP growth by 0,4%. The Governor of the Bank of Italy raises the alarm about the conflict's repercussions: "It is already causing unprecedented disruptions in global energy supply chains."
After two years of losses, the Bank of Italy has returned to a profit of €1,7 billion. In the background, the war in the Middle East is increasing uncertainty and risks for growth and inflation, in a context "likely destined to continue beyond the current phase…
Tomorrow on FIRSTonline, the February 2026 edition of the Economic Hands will answer all the main questions on current economic and financial affairs.
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR JANUARY 2026 – Why are interest rates, prices, and the stock market rising in the Land of the Rising Sun? Why did Warren Buffett say he should never bet against the US economy? What will the Fed's next interest rate move be?
According to the Bank of Italy, the Italian economy has held up better than expected, but as with all of Europe, two risks remain: the effects of AI and Chinese competition.
According to the latest ECB bulletin, inflation in the euro area will stabilize around 2% in the medium term, with growth continuing to be driven by consumption and services. Government bond spreads are at historic lows, but geopolitical risks and financial volatility remain.
According to the latest Bank of Italy survey, Italian businesses are showing increased confidence: demand is growing, wages are rising moderately, and investments are recovering. Inflation remains under control, while the construction industry remains struggling due to delays in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).
The ECB's final meeting of 2025 ended with rates unchanged, but it forecast stronger economic growth. Lagarde: "The economy is resilient, but strengthening the euro area is urgent."
ECONOMIC TIMETABLES FOR DECEMBER 2025 – What explains the continued rise in long-term rates? Are yield curves normalizing? Have key interest rates stopped decreasing? Will the signs of recovery in the European economy be confirmed? After the "statistical gloom"...
Over the last 6 years, Spanish employment has grown by 10,1%, Italian employment by 5,9%, while productivity per hour worked has risen by 2,1% in Madrid and fallen by 2,5% in Rome.
The Bank of Italy's Financial Stability Report outlines a substantially stable picture for Italy but growth is low and the risks of stock market corrections have increased
In its monthly economic bulletin, the ECB highlights the growth disparities among the major eurozone economies. GDP is expected to "expand moderately" in the fourth quarter. Downside risks are mitigated, with inflation nearing 2%.
Many questions are crowding the market stalls. From tomorrow on Firstonline the November edition of the monthly economic analysis column by Galimberti and Paolazzi
The ECB hasn't raised any surprises regarding the cost of borrowing. Lagarde believes the impact of tariffs will be visible over time, but the truce in Gaza, the US-China agreement, and the EU-US trade deal have mitigated some downside risks.
In the last three years, the South has grown more than the national average, reducing the territorial gap with the North in terms of per capita GDP, but in the coming years the growth ranking will reverse again
At the Turin Industrial Union assembly, Marco Gay called on entrepreneurs and politicians to share a vision of growth and innovation. "Growth isn't an individual matter; it's a collective exercise."
Prometeia revises its estimates for the global, European, and Italian economies: weak growth for Italy, +0,5% in 2025 and +0,7% in 2026. The impact of US tariffs is weighing heavily, but the PNRR still offers more light than shadow.
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR JULY 2025 – Is the dollar's weakness cyclical or structural? Will Trump's latest "penultimatums" on tariffs really bite? And what disruptions will tariffs bring to supply chains? The American labor market is…
According to the ECB, Russia's war against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East remain among the main sources of uncertainty, but an easing of trade and geopolitical tensions could boost confidence
The ECB cut rates by 0,25%, bringing the deposit rate to 2%, underlining the "exceptional uncertainty" that characterizes the current context due to the trade war. Lagarde: The president: "Today we arrive at the end of the monetary policy cycle".…
Interview with GIOVANNI BOSSI, founder and CEO of Cherry Bank: "Organic growth and targeted acquisitions will characterize our development strategy" which aims to double the assets and bring the profit to 2027 million by 70. "We are present above all…
Growth or recession, inflation and rates, euro and dollar, stock markets and bonds: on all the highly topical economic and financial issues in a turbulent time, tomorrow the Lancette dell'economia will answer on 'FIRSTonline', the historic monthly column…
Businesses expect the overall economic situation to worsen, as uncertainty and concerns over the effects of U.S. trade policies weigh heavily
Via Nazionale highlights the high uncertainty triggered by US duties and the situation could even worsen with retaliatory actions by the affected countries. Inflation at 1,6% in 2025
Don't mess with markets. Italy cannot follow the German model. Debt is a millstone that weighs on economic growth
Speaking to the European Parliament's Econ Committee, Lagarde explained that to respond to the US "greater trade integration is needed" And on Unicredit-Commerz: "Don't give up on bank resilience with Basel 3"
The growth of Italian exports in 2025 will be supported by favorable exchange rates, recovery in consumption and infrastructure investments. Key sectors: technology, pharmaceuticals and sustainable products. The EU-Mercosur agreement offers new opportunities for Made in Italy
INTERVIEW WITH FRANCO MOSCONI, industrial economist at the University of Parma who hopes for the birth of a movement of opinion that reminds everyone that "manufacturing matters, it certainly does". Here are his analyses and his suggestions for getting out of the crisis…
Piazza Affari is the best stock market in Europe thanks to banks and Cucinelli's boom but loses momentum after Lagarde's intervention. Pressure on bonds and wider spread. Wall Street mixed
Third rate cut for the ECB. "We are heading for a soft landing", reassured Lagarde, admitting however that "the economy is weaker than expected". Stock markets rise, Piazza Affari above 35 thousand points
The fall in rates and the expansionary measures planned by the government in the PSB are pushing the Bank of Italy to revise its growth estimates for 2025-2026 upwards, with GDP expected to rise by 2,2% cumulatively, but for this year the estimate of…
In a hearing at the European Parliament, Lagarde stressed that "cross-border mergers bring benefits". On monetary policy: "Inflation is falling, disinflation is accelerating and the economy is stagnating". More and more analysts are predicting a rate cut in October
The ECB does not reveal itself and does not provide indications on the next moves: "We are not committed to any particular rate reduction path," says Lagarde. Inflation above 2% also in 2025, price pressures still high
In 2023, the GDP of the South grew by 1,3% compared to the national 0,9%. Sicily at the top (+2,2%) The director of Svimez, Bianchi: "Pnrr is fundamental"
According to the economic booklet of the Assolombarda Study Center, in 2024 Lombardy's GDP will grow more than Italy's. President Spada: "Lombardy is growing more than all European benchmarks"
In the latest economic bulletin, Bank of Italy estimates inflation at 1,3% in 2024, loans to businesses intended for investments are decreasing, while in the private sector high profit margins absorb the recovery in wages
According to Via Nazionale, the service and construction sectors in particular improved in the first quarter, while sales abroad recovered. Second quarter seen further growth
In the middle of the session the Ftse Mib reached 34.770 points. De Felice (Intesa): "Growth will accelerate already in the second quarter, with 3 rate cuts from the ECB by the end of the year". On Wall Street, eyes on Boeing
The Italian Public Accounts Observatory of the Catholic University, directed by Giampaolo Galli, analyzes the effects of the 110% Superbonus, taking into account the enormous extra deficit caused and the recessive effects on the economy resulting from the abolition of the benefit
The inflation estimate for 2024 goes from 2,7% to 2,3%. Lagarde on rate cuts: "We will know more in April and much more in June." Stock markets up, government bonds down
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF FEBRUARY 2024 – The Red Sea risks widening conflicts: does it also pose risks for inflation? Why hasn't the rise in rates slowed down economies too much? How will the ECB react to Eurozone weakness and…
Tomorrow on FIRSTonline the Lancette dell'economia, the historic column by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi, will answer the main questions on the near future of the Italian, European, American and Chinese economy
For 2023 growth drops to +0,6% but accelerates slightly this year%. "Forecasts worsened due to the deterioration of the international context"
With a critical article in the Manifesto, the Bari economist Gianfranco Viesti encourages the Democratic Party to take up the challenge of differentiated autonomy to fight a battle for the reconstruction of Southern Italy which has the fight against inequalities at its centre. But without a policy…
Volatility could come from geopolitical tensions. Perissinotto: "The capitalization of interests will be the driver of performance"
In focusing on the budget strategies of member countries, the Parliamentary Budget Office underlines that Italian debt remains the second highest in Europe after Greece
Speaking to the ABI executive, the governor of the Bank of Italy admitted that "we are in a phase of cyclical slowdown". In 2023 growth at +0,6-0,7%. "Banks in a positive phase" but beware of the risks
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF JANUARY 2024 – What are the geopolitical risks that threaten a year of modest growth? What factors will anticipate or delay the decline in rates? Is the soft landing of the American economy confirmed? What is behind the stability of employment and…
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF DECEMBER 2023 – What are the markets' reasons and the central banks' reasons for the decline in rates? Is the US economy headed for a soft landing? What weapons does China have to support the economy? Why the…
Svimez Report 2023 - In 2023 the South grew by 0,4%, compared to +0,8% in the Centre-North - Employment rises, but also precariousness and poverty - Risk of "unsustainable fragmentation" from differentiated autonomy
Italy passes the tests of the rating agencies. Even the fearsome Moody's confirms the Baa3 rating and improves the outlook for our country's economy
The first agreements between Biden and Xi encourage the markets but the economic scenarios are not exciting
Artificial Intelligence can be very useful for reducing the growth gap between Europe and the USA but it cannot work miracles - For a real turning point it is essential to train human capital and imagine a new industrial policy
Did the markets celebrate the Fed's victory over inflation in early November? But is it really like that? And what will the effects be on rates, on growth, on the stock markets? Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi will explain it tomorrow on FIRSTonline in the famous…
Panetta is considered a right-wing Draghi: his technical competence is beyond question, but to become a good Governor he will have to demonstrate independence from political power, especially on 3 points. Will he make it?
There is no default on the horizon for the Italian economy but the party is over, GDP is slowing down, inflation is not falling enough, confidence is falling and the debt burden is becoming more cumbersome
Growth forecasts slow down, but this does not change the "judgment" on the country's ability to manage its debt towards the market
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF OCTOBER 2023 – What effects will the Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli reaction have on the economy? Is this another 'black swan'? “High rates and for a longer time” is the new mantra of the markets: is it justified?…
In its October Economic Bulletin, our Central Bank reports a general slowdown in the economy, including Italy - Inflation is also falling but not enough
Growth or recession, inflation, rates, currencies, stock markets, but what effect will the new conflict between Israel and Hamas have on economic affairs? The 14th edition of the Lancette dell'Economia will reveal it on Saturday 50 October on FIRSTonline
With a letter sent to the Mef, the Parliamentary Budget Office validated the macroeconomic forecasts contained in the Nadef, but warned: "Uncertain estimates, downside risks prevail"
GDP growth at 0,8% and deficit over 4%: these are the macro-sizes that will inspire the Nadef to be examined by the Council of Ministers this afternoon. In essence: less growth and more deficit - To obtain EU approval on the extra trade deficit…
The President of the Mario Negri Institute explains what are the scientific reasons that make cultivated meat appreciated and hopes that the Government will reconsider by dropping its bans
Domestic demand is weighing on GDP in the second quarter, with all the main aggregates decreasing
Precisely on the eve of the central bankers' summit in Jackson Hole, the report by two economists, Anna Wong and Eliza Winge, highlights how in a single summer the triumphal tours of Beyoncé and Taylor Swift and the boom…
"In the second quarter, the judgments of companies on the general economic situation remain unfavorable overall", reads the Bank of Italy survey. Inflation at 5,8% in 12 months, selling prices on the rise
According to the Prometeia 2023 Forecast Report, Italian GDP is 2,5% higher than the pre-Covid one. The conditions and obstacles for growth
Nine Italian regions are placed in the third band, eight in the fourth and four in the last band, a sort of Dantesque group. This is the verdict of the RAI (Regional Attractivness Index) elaborated by the Nord Est Foundation on the basis of 26 parameters grouped into…
Lagarde: "Have we finished the journey? No, inflation is too high for too long" - The stop from July on reinvestments of securities has been confirmed - Stock markets weak, the euro rises
The hands of the economy in June 2023 - The Italian economy is growing more - or slowing down less - than in the Eurozone: what factors explain this performance? And what other stumbling blocks lie in wait for the world economy? Why China's Rebound Not…
A joint commitment between the Government and the social partners against inflation and the acceleration of investments and reforms for the full implementation of the PNRR: these are the recommendations of Governor Ignazio Visco in his latest Final Considerations in the Bank of Italy
After the controversy over the delays, the Minister for European Affairs Raffaele Fitto intervenes in Parliament: "The government's goal is to give the country full implementation of the Plan".
Apple's recent decision to move iPhone production from China to India is a sign of Delhi's growing ability to attract foreign investment in an economy that will become the third largest in the world by 2027
The Draghi government leaves a rich legacy, with rapidly recovering public finances, strong exports, faster recovery than other countries. But above all with a method made of cohesion, industrial policy, screwdriver work, support for demand and businesses. It is convenient…
After +3,2% in 2022, next year will close for Italy with a 0,3% drop in GDP. The USA and China are slowing down, -3,4% in 2022 for Russia. According to the IMF, the "energy shock is not transitory"
INTERVIEW WITH GIAMPAOLO GALLI, economist and co-author of the book on "Economic growth and meritocracy" - "One cannot fail to notice the contradiction of those who, like FdI, asked for less powers for Europe during the electoral campaign and are now calling for the intervention of the …
We publish the introduction of the book "Italy and the thread of growth" by Luca Paolazzi, published by Marsilio. Resuming the path of development is possible but there are many challenges to face: here are the ones
THE HANDS OF THE ECONOMY OF SEPTEMBER 2022 - Are the difficulties of reading the economy dissipating? Yes, in the sense that the recession really comes. Can it be mitigated? With what policies? How serious is the gas problem? The (relative) weakness of…
Stefano Micossi leaves the management of Assonime after 23 years. His speech, given at the Luiss conference in his honor, clearly highlights the unsolved problems that are blocking the growth of the Italian economy and that the political forces…
According to the North-East Foundation, in twenty years the Italian GDP per capita has fallen from 22% above the European average to 6% below - Slow growth is the problem holding the country back: here is the ranking of the region's GDP per capita For…
Furthermore, according to President Cavallari, thanks to tax revenues there is an improvement in public finance balances - As for the Aid decree, "the measures are temporary"
Larger companies are better able to satisfy the demand for professional growth of young talents but especially in the North of the country they are few even if something is changing in the North East
On FIRSTonline on Saturday 11 June, the monthly analysis of short-term scenarios curated by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi returns. Inflation, recession, rates, stock exchanges, currencies: what's going on?
During the assembly of Unindustria Lazio, concerns emerged about the stability of the economy, but also about the opportunities ahead for Rome and the Region
THE HANDS OF THE ECONOMY OF MARCH 2022 - The war in Ukraine is rekindling inflation and hurting the recovery: what scenarios for the world economy? Which countries are most exposed? Will the commodity surge impact the price/wage spiral? How are they going to react…
Russia's attack on Ukraine causes European equities to lose appeal and Goldman Sachs revises its 2022 targets downwards with a deterioration in the growth and inflation mix
According to the Prometeia-Intesa report on industrial sectors, the record recovery of 2021 weakened in the last part of the year. 2022 growing but beware of geopolitical and energy risks
In March, with new macro projections, new assessments on rates - Inflation high for longer than expected, but down during the year
