The expected growth for Italian GDP in 2022 “is quantified around three percentage points”. The president of theParliamentary Budget Office, Lilia Cavallari, speaking on Wednesday morning in a hearing before the joint Budget commissions on the Report presented by the Government for the deviation. The forecast is contained in the Note on the economic situation that the PBO will publish next week. In detail, Cavallari explained that, "based on the PBO's short-term forecast models, economic activity in the spring months would have increased by more than half a percentage point, driven by all the major production sectors".
Thanks to this trend, therefore, the estimates released by the PBO itself last April are confirmed: on that occasion, in the validation exercise of the Def forecasts, the Office had forecast a +2,9% for the Italian GDP of 2022, against the +3,1% entered by the government in the Economic and Financial Document. Consequently, "the Government's confirmation of the growth forecast appears reasonable, with specific reference to 2022, on which the authorization requested with the Report to Parliament is concentrated", said the number one of the UPB.
Inflation
As for inflation, second Cavalry, "the continuation of the phase of price increases beyond the initial expectations requires the adoption of new urgent measures to support i household budgets and businesses", but "in perspective, it still appears necessary to combine the emergency measures with the strengthening and acceleration of the reform action, aimed at undoing the structural problems of the Italian economy and jointly addressing the new challenges of the energy independence and the ecological transition”.
Public accounts, what changes
On the public accounts side, “the Government Report maintains the programmatic objectives both on the net debt balances and on the medium-term objective - explained the Chairman of theUPB extension – What changes is the public finance trend due to the cash trend: there is an improvement in the public finance balances and maintaining the programmatic balances frees up resources for a decree that will be passed, I think, next week. Unlike the Reports presented in the past, this one does not consider a change in the programmatic objectives, but considers an update of the trend picture. In the first five or six months the revenue increases are already higher than those expected in the Def for the entire year in trend terms”.
Aid Decree: the measures announced by the Government
Finally, Cavallari focused on aid decree: “The measures announced by the Government of Report presented to Parliament appear to be consistent with the indications of the European Commission and the Community institutions, provided that such interventions are temporary in nature, are suitably targeted and in favor of the most affected households and businesses and do not undermine the sustainability of public finances. It should also be noted that the measures announced by Government to deal with the water emergency and the long period of drought are not for the moment included among the interventions specifically and in advance identified by the European Commission in the general safeguard clause or as interventions which must be taken into account to evaluate the intonation of the policy national budget. However, in the past, even Italy was granted flexibility with respect to the rules of the Stability Pact on expenses related to natural events beyond the control of the national authorities. This requires a specific decision by the European Commission".
