La The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points. and for those who have a mutual A very concrete question arises: how much will the installment increase? And for those who have yet to choose a loan, it is better to fixed rate or variable rate?
The Board of Directors brought the deposit rate from 2,25% to 2,50%, the rate on main refinancing operations at 2,65% and the rate on marginal lending at 2,90%. This is the second rate hike of 2026, following the one decided in June. This decision is expected by the markets, but it comes at a time of renewed pressure on inflation and significant uncertainty about the economic outlook. To understand what changes However, for those who pay a mortgage, we really need to look beyond the simple increase decided by the ECB.
Mortgages: How Much Will Your Installment Increase With the ECB Rate Hike?
Il new increase could be reflected in mortgagesi, but not automatically and to the same extent for all financing. The most direct impact concerns the variable rate mortgages, whose rates are mainly linked to theEuriborThe three-month index exceeded 2,7%, an increase of around 30 basis points compared to the beginning of June: therefore, the 25 basis points decided by the ECB do not automatically translate into a rate increase of the same amount.
The increase directly affects only the few variable rate mortgages still in existence indexed to the ECB rate and Not the Euribor. In these cases, the increase can cost approximately €15-20 per month for every €100 of debt, depending on the remaining term and the repayment plan. For most variable-rate mortgages, the Euribor trend will determine the installment changes.
Un example A concrete figure comes from Facile.it: on a standard variable mortgage of €126 over 25 years, the monthly payment increases from approximately €614 to €631, an increase of €17. The same payment was €578 in January, so compared to the beginning of the year, the overall increase comes to €53 per month.
Variable rates: can the installment increase further?
The real unknown, therefore, is not only the increase decided today by the ECB, but what will succeed Euribor in the coming monthsFutures updated in the first week of September indicated a possible increase in the three-month Euribor from 2,67% to 3,10% by June 2027. If this forecast were to come true, according to the simulation by Facile.it, the monthly payment on the €126 mortgage previously considered could exceed €650.
Le expectations of the market therefore indicate at least another ppossible hike by mid-2027 They do not rule out further interventions. However, these are forecasts, not decisions already made: the ECB reiterated that there is no predetermined path for interest rates and that future decisions will be assessed on a case-by-case basis based on economic data and inflation.
Fixed-rate or variable-rate mortgage: which is best today?
Fixed-rate mortgages are also becoming more expensive. The benchmark for banks is primarily the Eurirs (Italian National Interest Rate), which has risen by about 20 basis points since the beginning of June. According to MutuiOnline.it, in August the average annual interest rate (TAN) for 20- and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was 3,46%, compared to 2,80% for variable-rate mortgages.
Il variable it therefore still starts from a lowest cost, but its advantage could diminish if the Euribor continues to rise. Assuming that the 25 basis points decided by the ECB were fully passed on to the average APR of the variable rate, the rate would rise from 2,80% to 3,05%. On a 120 euro mortgage over 20 years, the payment would increase approximately from 653 to 668 euros: the variable rate would remain more convenient than the average fixed rate, but with a smaller margin.
The difference between the two formulas mainly concerns the riskThe rate fixed it costs more on average today, but guarantees the same installment for the entire duration of the mortgageThe choice therefore also depends on the ability to sustain any increases over the years.
Application data show a clear preference for payment certainty: in the first eight months of 2026, according to MutuiOnline.it, 92,2% of mortgage applications were for fixed rates, compared to just 3,6% for variable rates.
More expensive mortgages: what's happening to the housing market?
The increase in the cost of financing can also have effects on the real estate market, because a higher instalment reduces the spending capacity of families and can make it more difficult to obtain the necessary credit for buy a house.
According to Nomisma's historical analyses, the effects of rate hikes on sales tend to manifest themselves with a delay of about six monthsi. The first effects of the new increases could therefore emerge especially in the early months of 2027, particularly on the first-time home market. Investment purchases, on the other hand, are generally more stable, partly because they are more often made without a mortgage.
