Also for 2024 Lombardy confirms itself as the locomotive of Italy. While the latest forecasts for the national GDP speak of growth between 0,6% (Bankitalia) and 0,7% (OECD and Prometeia), Lombardy is taking its pace. In fact, at the end of this year, the Lombardy's gross domestic product is expected to grow by 1% over 483 billion euros, a result that would allow the region to exceed pre-Covid levels by +6,7%. This is what emerges from the economics booklet created by Assolombarda Study Center, published Genius&Enterprise, according to which much of the credit goes to Lombardy companies which, from 2019 to 2023, increased their investments of 19,7%.
Spada (president Assolombarda): “Lombardy beats all EU benchmarks”
“The Lombard economy, compared to pre-Covid, grows more than all European benchmarks: at the end of 2024 the estimate is +0,8% for Baden-Württemberg, +2,4% for Bayern, +4,8% for Cataluña, when our territory increases by 6,7%, with almost 84 billion euros in more products in the five-year period,” he declared Alessandro Spada, president of Assolombarda.
According to Spada, “these data confirm the strength and competitiveness of our companies, which with tenacity, passion and foresight, from 2019 to 2023, have increased their investments by 19,7% and which constantly demonstrate that they actually exceed any forecast of growth. For this to happen, it is necessary continue to invest much and well. Therefore, we ask that Industry 4.0 regain maximum strength and that Industry 5.0 be usable as soon as possible. At the same time, in a historical context of great international tension in which global competition is fierce, we need to unleash the further potential of our entrepreneurial fabric through the grounding ofi a concrete and far-sighted industrial strategy at European level on dossiers such as critical raw materials, ecological transition, artificial intelligence, defence", continues the president of Assolombarda underlining that in this context "the EU has the responsibility to also think of itself as a political, geo-political, social and non-political actor only economic”, and must therefore carry forward a “industrial agreement” at continental level, “equivalent to the strategies implemented by the USA and China”
Assolombarda: employment growth of 1,1% in 2024
Assolombarda's report highlights how, despite the progress, business sentiment is still quite heterogeneous. In the flash survey of mid-April, in fact, 39,5% of the 375 innovative manufacturing and tertiary companies interviewed believe that in 2024 the regional economic situation will be in line with that of the previous year, 28% expect an improvement, while the 31,7% expect a worsening.
They improve compared to January estimates labor market forecasts: in 2024 the number of employed people should grow by +1,1% in Lombardy compared to the +1% expected at national level, thus reaching increases of +2,2% and +3% respectively compared to pre-Covid.
Lombardy: investments growing by 19,7% compared to pre-Covid levels
The economics booklet of the Assolombarda Study Center then focuses on business investments. In 2023, gross fixed investments recorded an annual growth of +4,7% in Italy and, it is estimated, of +5,1% in Lombardy: at the end of last year, both were widely above pre-Covid levels of +26% and +19,7%, increases that compare with a more contained +5,9% in France and a gap that persists both in Germany (-3,1%) and in Spain (-3,5%).
Speaking of the type of asset, at a national level the highest contribution to investment growth over the four-year period comes from buildings, which mark a +38,6% on 2019. Followed by tangible fixed assets: the "plant and machinery" component in Italy is at +17,2% compared to 2019, three times the increase in France (+5,4%) and clearly behind Spain (-8,4%) and Germany ( -2,1%). Third place in the standings for the investments in intellectual property products, however, they too are clearly expanding (+12,7% in Italy in the five-year period 2019-2023).
"A decline in gross fixed investments is expected for 2024 of -1,7% per year at the Lombardy level and -2% nationally, "with a strong contraction in the construction component but with an important stability of plants and machinery, which are expected to grow by a further +6,3% (source Prometeia) , the report explains.
On this front, Assolombarda's flash survey shows that 80,8% of the companies interviewed have planned investments in 2024 with a value higher (42,4%) or equal (38,4%) to that of 2023. "For these companies, the use of capital mainly concerns 'plants and machinery' (indicated by 44,2%), 'consulting, R&D and training' (40,6%) and 'software' (37%). Among the objectives, in the lead are growth strategies such as increasing production capacity (39,6%), digitalisation (38,6%) and diversification of one's business (32,7%); furthermore, around a quarter (24,1%) indicate environmental sustainability reasons", we read in the booklet, which highlights how 17,1% of companies indicate a reduction in the amount of investments compared to 2023.
