To give centrality and attack the crisis of the Italian industry, too often forgotten, we need the contribution of many protagonists of national life, from the Government, to the social partners and the Universities, but above all we need a movement of opinion that reminds everyone that "manufacturing matters, it certainly does". This is the intriguing opinion of Professor Franco Mosconi, full professor of Economics and Industrial Policy at the University of Parma, author of a monumental monograph on European industrial policy, published by Routledge, and of many works on the "Emilian model" including the most recent one that is not by chance entitled precisely "Emilia Model. Innovative companies and community spirit". Mosconi looks realistically at an industrial crisis that is also being felt in Emilia and on which the cost of energy weighs like a dead weight, but remains convinced that, even in the face of the insidious challenges launched to European companies by American President Trump, there is a way out and it is the one indicated in the Reports of Mario Draghi on competitiveness and Enrico Letta on the single market that recommend more investments, more innovation and more reforms, provided that Europe knows how to respond to America by speaking with one voice. But here, in this interview given to FIRSTonline, are the reflections of the Emilian industrial economist.
Professor Mosconi, Italian industrial production has been declining for 22 months and some people are somewhat provocatively asking whether, if things continue like this, ours will remain the second largest manufacturing industry in Europe: what are the real problems of our industry? The collapse of the automotive industry, the crisis of essential outlet markets such as Germany and China, the high cost of energy or what else?
“Everything you listed and which is further amplified in its effects by the turbulence at the geopolitical level (let's never forget the drama of two wars) and by the geoeconomic fragmentation (the constitution around the world of blocks of countries, some very granitic). Let's take the case of the cost of energy: as the president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini, recalled in recent days, 'it is not possible to pay +43% of energy in a year' because 'it means losing competitiveness'”.
Despite the fall in Italian industrial production speaking for itself, the chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP), Gregorio De Felice, argues that Italian industry remains competitive and has a greater capacity to react than the German one and that the Italian industrial model is far from being in crisis: What do you think?
“Yes, Gregorio De Felice's interview with Dario Di Vico for The Economy is an informed and up-to-date reflection on all the main sectors of Italian industry: in a medium-term perspective (from 2008 to today), many things have changed for the better at a structural level. Let's think about the Italian manufacturing specialization with the strengthening of productions such as pharmaceuticals and mechatronics, and the resilience of industrial districts (there are over 150 of them monitored by ISP, plus about twenty technological hubs). The Chief Economist of ISP strongly underlines the ability of our industry to react – I quote – 'superior to that of the Germans, because it is smaller and more flexible, has a wide diversification of products and outlet markets'. At the same time it must be said that, both looking at the best in the EU and in the rest of the world (theEconomist In its end-of-year issue it told the success story of companies in the Nordic countries), the bar must be set ever higher”.
In what sense?
"In the sense that our companies - many of which have solid family ownership behind them - must continue to grow in size and in their technological level. Some important empirical surveys in the last few years confirm that there is - what to call it? - an elite of companies that have gone from small size (and are going) to medium, and from medium to large: a system that allows the best to make these steps in scale is, in general, a healthy system. The survey of the 1.000 so-called 'Superchampions' companies by Italy Post e The Economy of the Corriere della Sera goes in this direction, as does the Mediobanca-Unioncamere survey on over 4.000 medium-sized industrial companies. We must continue on this main road of dimensional consolidation (also through external growth operations, the famous M&A): the pace of technological progress and projection on international markets will benefit from it”.
The former director of Corriere della Sera and Sun 24 Hours, Ferruccio De Bortoli, complained a few days ago that the fall of Italian industry “doesn't seem to worry anyone” and that “this is precisely the problem”: in your opinion, why do Italians, starting with their ruling class, seem to ignore the industrial emergency?
“Let's be honest: Director de Bortoli's comment should be posted at the entrance to the Chamber of Deputies, the Senate and all the ministries: although I don't know how many days it would remain there... Jokes aside, it is not easy to give an answer to the 'mystery': that is, the problems that weigh on Italian industry and the absence of the topic from public debate. Certainly, the fact that to reason about these issues you need to know the real economy of the country, which requires time and effort, plays a role. Much easier to declare, in front of the cameras, something about - let's say - 'the deep America that voted for Trump' (whatever this stereotypical expression means). Then there is also a responsibility of the academic world that, for many years (decades, in truth), has relegated empirical investigation and research topics such as the new industrial policy to Serie B (now, slowly, something is changing). But these are only two possible causes of the mystery - a painful mystery, one might add - evoked by de Bortoli. The topic deserves to be explored in depth because, if a movement of opinion does not emerge, something like 'Manufacturing matters, it certainly does', I fear that more à la page arguments will always dominate the scene".
You live in a region, Emilia-Romagna, which in recent years has been the driving force of Italy, also thanks to a medium-sized business capitalism that is very oriented towards innovation and internationalization: what kind of atmosphere do you breathe these days?
“What Emilia-Romagna is, or rather, the Emilia-Romagna 'ecosystem', is shown by its excellent results, to give a few examples, in terms of exports, research and innovation, female employment, spread of nursery schools, and so on; all results certified by Istat, Eurostat, European Commission. If numbers are considered boring, then it is better to let Claudio Domenicali, CEO of Ducati, speak, who, to a specific question from Corriere di Bologna ('German wallet, Bolognese head: your strength is the Territorial System?') he responded as follows: 'Fundamental, very important. Starting from the link with the University (...), to the fact of being in the Motor Valley, a fundamental district that works if there is collaboration. The Region has worked well, also on events. Now there is the issue of ecological transition: whoever has innovated more will move forward'. The interview is from January 10, 2025. Of course, even along the Via Emilia, so open to international exchanges, the current situation and short-term prospects raise more than one concern, as the open corporate crises unfortunately testify”.
Speaking of concerns, especially for entrepreneurs from Emilia, Italy and Europe who export, in his message to Davos the new American President Trump addressed European companies with an attractive but also insidious proposal, namely that those of them who invest in the US will be subject to a 15% tax, but those who do not will be subject to duties. How do you evaluate it and what effects could it have on Italian companies?
"In fact, it was a crescendo of declarations and everything suggests that decisions will soon follow. During the election campaign, there was already insistent talk, in the Trump camp, of imposing duties between 10 and 20% on European products. Then, last Thursday, came President's statement in Davos: of the series, 'carrot and stick' given the link between investments in the US and the imposition (or not) of duties. The very risky part of the proposal is that it tends to divide the EU countries on a key issue of European construction such as trade policy. With great timing, a few days earlier and again in Davos, the CDU candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, had spoken of the need for EU countries to develop a 'joint proposal' precisely to deal with possible trade tariffs on our goods. It is a categorical imperative to go in this direction, otherwise it is not only export percentages and points of missed GDP growth that are at risk: more profoundly, the very foundations of European construction would be at risk, of the EU, which in international trade relations speaks - as they say - with "one voice".
If even the US is rediscovering industrial policy, don't you think that Italy and Europe should also wake up with an industrial policy that is not national but continental in nature, which goes beyond the Next Generation EU and aims not only to collect the necessary financial resources but to directly choose where to direct them by identifying the sectors where the EU can truly compete in the world?
"The US has largely rediscovered industrial policy, at least, with the Biden administration (but also before): just think, to stay in the very last few years, of the well-known Inflation Reduction Act (Ira) and the Chips and Science Act, both of 2022 with hundreds of billions of dollars in allocation. After the Next Generation Eu, which you mentioned, today the Union has the opportunity to follow the far-sighted indications of the Draghi Report on 'competitiveness' and the Letta Report on the 'internal market'. The common thread that links the two reports is, in my opinion, the great role attributed to investments in knowledge: scientific research, technological innovation, training of human capital. In the field of R&D alone, the gap that separates the EU from the US is estimated to be in the order of 270-280 billion euros per year: the powerful increase in supranational investments is the only way forward for us to not lose all the challenges of the XNUMXst century. The Draghi Report then lists a series of sectors – there are ten – that deserve specific interventions: from energy to AI, through semiconductors and space. It is in this direction that a Member State like Italy can and must give its contribution: it is a founding country of a united Europe; it is the second manufacturing country in Europe. But the Champions League, as we know, is played every year and woe betide anyone who rests on their laurels”.
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Franco Mosconi teaches Economics and Industrial Policy at the University of Parma. He is a columnist for the Corriere di Bologna, the city supplement of the Corriere della Sera. His monograph on industrial policy, published by Routledge, is entitled: “The New European Industrial Policy. Global competitiveness and manufacturing renaissance” (2015). Among his works on the “Emilian model”, we recall the recent: “Modello Emilia. Imprese innovative e spirito di comunità” (Post Editori, 2023).
