L'Italian economy continues to demonstrate a good capacity for resilience, but the path of growth remains far from free of obstacles. In the July Economic Bulletin, the Bank of Italy has revised to I'm raising my GDP forecast Italian, which is now expected to grow in 2026 of 0,6%, compared to the previously estimated 0,5%. The revision reflects the improved performance recorded in the first quarter and the update of ISTAT's quarterly accounts.
The improvement in estimates, however, does not change the underlying picture. For the 2027 growth is expected 0,4%, while only since 2028 GDP should accelerate to 0,9%, in a scenario that continues to depend largely on the evolution of the geopolitical context and energy markets.
Bank of Italy: Growth moderate, but uncertainty remains high
In first quarter of 2026 Italian GDP increased by 0,3%, supported by growth in exports, investments and consumption. In the spring months, however, the conflict in the Middle East It would have slowed the pace of the economy, with a slowdown in investment and lower household spending. For this reason, the Bank of Italy emphasizes that uncertainty surrounding forecasts remains high, with numerous external factors capable of rapidly altering the scenario.
Among the factors of greatest concern is the evolution of the crisis between the United States and IranThe resumption of hostilities has brought tensions back to energy markets, causing oil and gas prices to rise, which remain above pre-conflict levels.
According to Via Nazionale, any continuation of tensions and possible difficulties in transit through the Strait of Hormuz They could further increase inflationary pressures and have "particularly pronounced" effects on economic growth. This scenario could also impact Italy's energy balance, increasing costs for businesses and households.
Inflation on the rise and the ECB remains cautious
The increase in energy prices is already reflected in prices. In second quarter inflation rose to 3% and, according to Bankitalia forecasts, the 2026 average should settle at 3,1%, then gradually returning to 2% in the following two years.
To limit the impact of the increase in fuel prices, the Government intervened with a temporary reduction in excise duties, while the European Central Bank chose to maintain high attention on the price front, increasing the interest rates by 25 basis points at the June meeting.
Resilient labor market, stable exports
The picture outlined by the Bulletin is not without positive elements. The occupation continues to grow and the rate of unemployment reached a new all-time low. Exports also held up substantially between April and May, despite the slowdown in sales to the Middle East.
However, the dynamics of the consumption and investments, while wages continue to gradually increase.
The perspectives
For Bankitalia the basic scenario remains that of a moderate growth, supported by investments in digitalization, the energy transition, and increased European defense spending. But the picture remains closely tied to the evolution of the international scenario.
If tensions in the Middle East were to continue and the energy market were to experience further shocks, the path of the Italian economy, already characterized by modest growth, could become even more complex.
