Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Piedmont, Lazio, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Veneto are the regions that will lead the next three years the Italian growth rankingIn an increasingly uncertain global scenario, the regions with the highest Pro-capite GDP to advance at a greater speed, recording a GDP dynamic (between +0,6% and +0,7%) above the national average (+0,5%). This is one of the main forecasts of the Prometeia report Local Economies Scenarios, presented today in Bologna in a dialogue with the president of Asvis, Enrico Giovannini, and the head of the Economic Structure Service of the Bank of Italy, Roberto Torrini.
Growth: the North-South gap has narrowed
In the recent past, however, things have gone differently: driven by the funds of the Pnrr (+4,5% compared to +4,2% in Italy), in the last three years the southern regions have grown of 0,9%, compared to an Italian average of +0,7%. A trend that has also had repercussions on the job market, with the South recording an average annual growth in employment of 2,5% compared to 1,8% in the central-northern regions.
“The support of investments, the increase in the participation rate especially in the South and the good trend in employment – underlines Prometeia – have allowed us to reduce, even if only slightly, the substantial territorial gap In terms of per capita GDP, from over 52 euros in Bolzano to 19 euros in Calabria, in a global context of growing inequality." This result, the experts at the consulting firm comment, "is by no means negligible and is destined to remain in place throughout the forecast period, albeit slightly declining."
Prometeia: forecasts for the next three years
But things are about to change. In the next three years, the disappearance of the tax breaks Super bonus and, starting in 2027, the exhaustion of the PNRR “will make it more difficult to maintain the same growth rates in the southern regions”, predicts Prometeia according to which the recovery of the industrial and service sector will not be sufficient in the South to counter thethe decline in the construction sector (-4,2%) and this will lead to the return to lower growth in productive activity to the national average (0,3% compared to 0,6% in Central-Northern Italy).
Prometeia presents the I-Pros index
The awareness that the persistence of large territorial gaps and social disparities can be even greater than those measured by GDP has led Prometeia to buildand the I-Pro indexs, presented today in Bologna. A useful tool for understanding the social well-being of local areas and designed to enrich traditional metrics, offering an integrated and multidimensional view of local systems.
“Available at the provincial level, the index returns a partly expected territorial framework: the areas with the highest values are concentrated mainly in the Northern Italy, while those with the lowest scores are found in the South, confirming the country's historical dichotomy also from a social perspective", highlights Prometeia which however also speaks of discontinuity. Ascoli Piceno, for example, is ranked second in the ranking, while some provinces of the Northwest are positioned below the national average. Some areas of the Centro, moreover, show results closer to those of the South.
"The I-Pros index is intended as a tool capable of offering a concise yet granular representation of the social dimension of Italian provinces. It provides concrete support for highlighting the specific needs of local areas, promoting consistent comparisons, and guiding the adoption of coherent and shared policies," he explains. Alessandra Lanza, senior partner of Prometeia.
Analyzing the index's individual components allows us to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each territory. In provinces such as SondrioThe prevalence of mountainous areas hinders access to essential services but promotes high air quality. In Bolzano, however, housing costs penalize the overall ranking, while large cities have an advantage in terms of tertiary education, but are more exposed to safety issues.
