The rain of records continues. Asian stock markets bid farewell to November, raising the highs of the last ten years thanks to the boost from technology and the recovery in oil prices. Wall Street takes its leave at its highest level since October, the best month since February.
Janet Yellen is thus preparing in an almost ideal climate (+3% GDP, unemployment at 4%) to close one of the last Fed meetings of her management. Tomorrow Donald Trump should nominate his successor, probably Jerome Powell, the Republican candidate who promises to continue Yellen's policy, punished for being a Democrat.
In short, the Bull advances undisturbed without suffering too much from the consequences of Russiagate which perhaps creates more embarrassment for Facebook (126 million pre-election messages from Russia disseminated without undergoing checks) than for the White House. For now, the only president affected by impeachment is Kevin Spacey, protagonist of House of Cards: Netflix has suspended production after yet another sex scandal, current currency in Hollywood and Wall Street.
Not even the Catalan bullfight scares the European price lists. Indeed, the euro under pressure (1,163 against the dollar) protects the manufacturing of the Old Continent.
SAMSUNG TAKES FLIGHT, INDIA BEATS USA IN SMARTPHONES
Tokyo prepares to receive Donald Trump. The Nikkei index rises by 1% and reaches its highest level in the last 21 years: October closed with an increase of almost 10%. The yen weakened against the dollar to 113,9 from 113,2 the previous day. Seoul is doing even better, driven by Samsung's excellent quarterly +4% to which for the moment the five-year sentence for corruption of the leading shareholder, Lee Jae Yong, does no harm. Thanks to the rally of Apple's suppliers, the Taiwan Stock Exchange hits a two-and-a-half-year high.
Sixth rising session for the Indian Stock Exchange: the BSE Sensex index gains 1% to 446 points, a new record. In the meantime, a historic overtaking is looming: New Delhi is starting to become the second market in the world for smartphones ahead of the United States, Sales have exceeded the threshold of 40 million pieces +23%, while the world market is lagging behind (+ 1,7%). In China, Hong Kong rose by 0,3%, with a slight decline in the CSI300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.
WALL STREET AT HIGHS AWAITING FED
Record session also on Wall Street. The Nasdaq closed up 0,43%, a new all-time high: October closed with a gain of 3,6%. Dow Jones +0,12% (+4,3% in October) and S&P500 +0,09 (+2,2% in October). The US stock market is buoyed by macroeconomic data: the Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose in October to its highest level since December 2000.
Some consumer stocks were effervescent: Mondelez +5,4%, Kellogg +6,2% after signaling the recovery of sales after two flat years. There is growing anticipation for the Facebook accounts, arriving after the Stock Exchange, and Apple (+1,4%).
OIL SUPERSTAR, OIL STOCKS ADVANCE
The oil rush continues. Brent traded this morning at 61,15 dollars a barrel (+38% from the June lows), Wti at 54,65 dollars. However, US strategic inventories should have declined last week, according to preliminary indications from oil company research centers. The rise of BP after the above-expected results drives the entire oil sector with the sector index up by 0,7%. Eni is up 1,45%, Saipem +0,45%, Tenaris +0,51%.
MILAN +18,5% SINCE JANUARY. UP FOR 4 MONTHS
For Piazza Affari, October was the eighth positive month out of the ten that have passed so far in 2017, the fourth in a row on the rise. The performance since the beginning of the year exceeds +18,5%, the best balance in the Eurozone. In the last month, Piazza Affari rose less than the other European stock exchanges: the EuroStoxx index gained 2,2%, the Paris Cac40 3,2%. The Milan Stock Exchange was also beaten by that of Madrid, despite the ballast of the institutional crisis between Barcelona and the central government: thanks to the comeback in recent days, the Ibex index closed October with a 1,5% rise.
STM QUEEN OF THE MONTH: +23,4%
Among the protagonists of the month in Milan, StMicroelectronics: +23,4%, against +5% of the Stoxx index of European technology. Campari (+10%) and Ferrari (+10%) are also in evidence. Mediaset returns to close a month in positive (+6%) after nine months of decline. The drop in interest rates helped all utilities in October: Snam +7%, Enel +5,2%, Italgas +5,5%.
BITTER OCTOBER FOR BANKS
On the other hand, banks are in negative ground, penalized by the publication of the new guidelines for the disposal of non-performing loans. Bper Banca closes October down by 17,5%, Banco Bpm -14,5%, Unicredit -8,5%. The oil companies are disappointing. Against +4,5% in the Stoxx oil&gas index, Eni closed October with an increase of 0,1%. Brent oil gains +6% this month, from +10% in September. Black month also for Telecom Italia (-6%) and Azimut (-7%).
THE CATALAN CRISIS DOESN'T STOP MADRID
European markets positive but not too much yesterday in an orphan session of the German Stock Exchange. The markets, awaiting the outcome of the Fed meeting, thus ended October with a plus sign. Piazza Affari came close to the annual record one hour after closing, only to slow down. In the end, the Ftse Mib index +0,18% closed at 22.793 points. Madrid's ride does not stop, +0,74%. Former Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont said in a press conference in Brussels that he had accepted the early elections called in Catalonia by the Spanish central government and clarified that he was not seeking political asylum in Belgium.
Closed for holidays Frankfurt. Pretty good Paris, +018%. French GDP rose by 0,6% in the third quarter, +2,2% on an annual basis. London +0,07%. The phase of appreciation of the pound against the euro continues in view of the probable monetary tightening of the British Central Bank: the announcement on rates is for tomorrow at 13.00. Economists expect an increase to 0,5% from 0,25%. The euro-pound exchange rate is at its low for the month at 0,87.
UNEMPLOYMENT STABLE, THE SPREAD DROP TO 146
The Italian unemployment rate remained stable at 11,1% in September compared to 11,1 (revised from 11,2) the previous month. The Italian inflation rate does not stray from the 1% area. Indeed, in the month of October, due to an extraordinary factor linked to greater exemptions from university fees, it returns to 1,0% per year from 1,1% in September. The differential with the euro zone remains, which in October recorded an annual inflation rate of 1,4%, down from 1,5% the previous month and far from the ECB's target of close to 2%.
Once the round of Italian auctions is closed, with the reopening of medium-long term placements, the market is preparing for tomorrow's placements in Spain and France. Positive session for the Italian paper, with the 1,83-year yield at 0,41% and the spread with the Bund down by 146.1% to 5. The interest of specialists in the reopening of the auctions of 10 and 2025-year BTPs and of the new Ccteu April 1,8 was very sustained. In fact, the maximum amount offered was assigned on all three securities, for a total amount of XNUMX. XNUMX billion euros.
Tomorrow France will offer 7,5-8,5 billion euros in three OATs: May 2028, May 2031, May 2048. Spain will instead offer 3,5-4,5 billion euros in three nominal bonds - October 2022, October 2027, July 2040 – and 250-750 million euros of eurozone inflation-linked, November 2027. Around the close, the Italy/Spain yield differential on the 38-year stretch stands at 37 basis points from XNUMX basis points yesterday closing.
CNH (+5,8%) LEADS THE LIST, WAITING FOR FERRARI
Piazza Affari was dragged along by the titles of the Agnelli-Exor galaxy. At the top of the rankings is Cnh Industrial: +5,8% after the quarterly results to the new all-time high of 11 euros. In the third quarter, the group reported revenues of $6,63 billion, an increase of 15,3% over the same period last year. Adjusted net income was $148 million, more than double last year's (68 billion). Both results are above expectations, thanks above all to the Agricultural Machinery division. Net industrial debt at the end of September was 2,6 billion dollars, from 2,1 billion at the end of June, in line with expectations. The company raised its estimates for 2017, bringing revenues to $25,0-25,5 billion, up from $24 billion previously.
Ferrari follows (+2%), with a new high close to 103 euros two days after the release of the accounts. The Exor holding is also making progress (+1,7%). FCA +0,68%, to 14,84 euros: Banca IMI reaffirmed the add rating while raising the target price to 16,9 from 12,3 euros.
Of the industrials, Prysmian has risen by almost one percentage point to 29,59 euros, close to the recent all-time high of a few days ago at 29,78 euros. Goldman Sachs confirmed the Buy judgment, readjusting the target price upwards to 34 euros from the previous 32 euros.
BANKS HOLD BACK, UTILITIES GROW
Banks go down, penalized by the fall in rates. Understanding -1% and Unicredit -1%. Banco Bpm -0,2%: the institute and Cattolica (+0,3%) announced that they had postponed the conclusion of the alliance in bancassurance to 9 November. Banca Monte dei Paschi loses 1,5%. Banca Carige (-1,82%) announced losses of 210,4 million euros in the first nine months of the current year compared to 223 million liabilities in the same period of 2016.
Among the utilities, A2A +1%, Snam -0,5% and Enel +0,2%. Italgas falls (-2,52%) hit by profit taking after the good performance of the last period.
PURCHASES ON MEDIASET, FEATURED EDITORIALS
Purchases on Mediaset (+2,4%) despite the press rumors about a cooling off of the negotiations with Vivendi regarding an agreement on Premium. The publishing sector is on the rise. Mondadori and RCS are up about 2%. On the second day of the capital increase, the shares of Il Sole 24 Ore retrace slightly and lose 1,3%, against rights still falling sharply -15,8%. As is often the case with very dilutive increases, stocks trade higher than rights because they benefit from a scarcity effect.
In the publishing sector, the shares of the Monrif group are flying after the agreement announced yesterday evening by Poligrafici Printing+19%) for the printing of the Gazzetta di Parma.
THE PIR DRAG THE BRICK, FLY TECHNOGYM
Among the small caps, real estate companies are on the rise. In the final version of the budget law that arrived in the Senate for approval, the extension of the tax regime of Individual Savings Plans (PIR) to real estate companies was confirmed. Real estate companies have so far been excluded from the PIRs and their inclusion in the plans could have a positive impact on the sector's liquidity and on the arrival of new realities on the stock exchange. Aedes +7%, Beni Stabili +3,2%.
Among the medium caps, Technogym strengthened with a rise of 3,3% and set a new historical record at 8,315 euros. Approximately +80% since the beginning of the year.
Geox+5,7%. The company will announce its third quarter results on November 4th. Revenues are expected to grow moderately despite a foreseeable negative effect on the currency front. The Bloomberg consensus sees 9 purchase recommendations out of a total of 3,20 surveyed analysts. Average target €XNUMX.
