Now there's one more tool to predict the success of a film. Less artisanal than 'listening groups' and more scientific than hoped for, a mathematical model, developed by a team of physicists from the Japanese University of Tottori, aims to project the takings and success to the public, if not to critics (such as it is known, public and critics often diverge in their judgments). There are mainly two independent variables: how much money was spent on advertising before the launch of the film and how many references to the film can be found on social sites.
A simulation of the model on various films – 'The Da Vinci Code', 'Spiderman 3', 'Avatar'… – compared with the revenues actually generated confirmed the effectiveness of the method. The model, published in the 'Journal of Physics', can also be applied, according to its creators, to other markets, such as online music, non-alcoholic beverages, 'junk food' and the organization of events.
