Markets are generally positive although risk appetite is crushed by renewed tensions in the Middle East. European stocks are seen rising with attention to inflation data expected to decline
In a hearing at the European Parliament, Lagarde stressed that "cross-border mergers bring benefits". On monetary policy: "Inflation is falling, disinflation is accelerating and the economy is stagnating". More and more analysts are predicting a rate cut in October
Inflation continues to weigh on the Eurozone, with forecasts of an increase of up to 2,5% in 2024. The ECB will act on rates with flexibility, without following a specific path, but based on economic data.
The cost of living in and around Buenos Aires is notoriously high, but a research center has quantified it in relation to the minimum wage, highlighting the differences with other countries. A pair of Nikes can cost 70% of an income…
The monthly economic analysis column edited by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi will analyze the current political-economic situation, with a special focus on the markets, trying to understand what awaits us in the coming autumn
With today's decision, the deposit rate goes from 3,75% to 3,50%. Due to the new operating framework, the other two drop by 60 points. The ECB confirms its inflation estimates
The CEO of artificial intelligence giant Nvidia spoke of overwhelming demand for chips. The struggling Nasdaq bounced back on his words and closed up 2,1%, also influencing Asian stock markets. European stock markets are…
The slightly rising trend of US inflation rules out a 0,50% cut in Fed rates in September while tomorrow a new small cut is expected from the ECB
According to the analysis by Ref Ricerche, in the second quarter of 2024 Italy shows modest growth with a slightly increasing GDP, mainly supported by tourism, which reaches a historical record. While industry struggles to take off, the service sectors and…
The fall in prices beyond expectations both in Italy and throughout the Eurozone has given new impetus to the stock markets, among which that of Piazza Affari is the best in the Old Continent. At Nasdaq only a slight rebound for Nvidia
Inflation slows to 2,2% in the Eurozone, while in Italy it falls to 1,1% in August. Prices are stable in the US. Stock markets hit new records, then retrace
Nvidia is still marking time on the world markets: after having marked a decline at the close of Wall Street, the increase noted in after-hours trading is pushing up the Asian stock markets. In Japan, a sharp increase in electronics production. The…
Nvidia's good but not very good quarterly results penalize the stock, unlike the rest of the US hi-tech, also supported by GDP growth. In Europe, Germany records a drop in inflation but the Milan Stock Exchange does better. Gold recovers…
The summer of 2024 has brought mixed signals for the Eurozone economy. Falling inflation was not enough to revive growth, with industry in difficulty and services recovering. The latest analysis by Ref Ricerche explains why
The Milei cure is reviving the macroeconomic parameters, but the daily life of Argentinians is still very complicated between inflation, unemployment and stagnant wages: to cope with the collapse in consumption, the Diarco supermarket chain has launched its own exchange
From the Jackson Hole symposium Jerome Powers confirms: "the upside risks to inflation have decreased, while the downside risks to employment have increased. The time has come to cut rates." Stocks rising sharply
The latest macro news coming from America encourages the markets even if the return to normality after the Japanese shock and the Big Tech swing has not yet been fully realized
Italian inflation does not scare the stock market which rises in the wake of yesterday's good performance on Wall Street. Banks and Leonardo on the shields. But in the early afternoon the music changes
The ECB does not reveal itself and does not provide indications on the next moves: "We are not committed to any particular rate reduction path," says Lagarde. Inflation above 2% also in 2025, price pressures still high
Based on the economic premises expressed by Trump, the next actions will be aimed at greater government spending, greater paper issuance and greater inflation. Investors are selling bonds and buying stocks
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF JULY 2024 – Why can we exclude a recession? Can we expect a correction in the stock markets? What was the role of the 'Magnificent Seven' in Wall Street prices? Why did the stock markets rise both in…
Bank of Italy, what the quarterly economic bulletin says: the monetary tightening continues to impact the declining cost of credit, mortgages and loans to businesses. The increase in tourism prices slows the decline in inflation. Here are the GDP forecasts: +1,1%…
The slowdown in US inflation which suggests a first reduction in Fed rates in the autumn is not warming the markets. In Europe, however, the Paris Stock Exchange is resurrecting. American high tech is down sharply
The positive data on German inflation and UK GDP support European stock markets, already focused on US consumer prices. Milan above parity with the focus on Tim and the run-up of Mfe shares
The rally that followed the first round of the French elections is already over, European stock markets are in the red after the publication of the data on Eurozone inflation which is slowing down. In Piazza Affari, oil companies are doing well, cars are in the red
Taylor Swift not only broke records with her world tour "The Eras Tour", but also sparked a debate about the global economic impact, influencing inflation and prompting central banks to react
The reversal of the direction of the tech companies on Wall Street has affected the Asian stock markets and threatens to also affect the European stock markets
In its latest Economic Bulletin, the ECB announces that it will keep reference rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary. Underlying inflation continues its downward path, confirming the picture of a gradual decrease in price pressures but…
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF JUNE 2024 – What factors are behind the stability of the Italian economy? Why is growth virtuous? Is export gaining market share? Is the quality of exported goods increasing? Is GDP more dynamic than it seems? Why…
Compared to April forecasts, GDP growth is one tenth of a point lower in both 2025 and 2026, due to forecasts of higher interest rates. Inflation will fall faster, to 1,1% in 2024 and…
Stock markets begin uncertainly after the Fed confirmed market expectations yesterday, extinguishing any hope of immediate rate cuts. Wall Street, however, has once again shown its muscles and is breaking new records. Apple still on the rise.…
A day of recovery for the stock markets both in Europe and in the USA after the storm of the first two days of the week and awaiting the Fed's moves. Piazza Affari is the best in Europe. Apple on Wall Street…
While waiting for the Fed and US inflation data, European stock markets are trying to put the results of the EU vote behind them. Banks are pushing Milan up, the spread is cooling, yields are falling
Banking sector stocks remain in the spotlight, after the strong correction suffered in the previous session. The European Union should postpone the start of the so-called Basel III rules for a year, so as not to penalize financial institutions…
The political earthquake that has hit France is alarming the European financial markets and the Milan stock exchange is the one that bears the brunt of it due to the size of the public debt. The Ftse Mib loses 34 thousand…
The fixed rate is already discounting the next cuts, while the variable rate costs much more. Meanwhile there is a rush for subrogations: now they represent a third of the mortgages granted
After three years of restrictive monetary policy, the first rate cut since 2016 arrives, but the ECB warns: "Price pressures remain strong". The new estimates on GDP and inflation
These are still difficult months for Argentinians: the Milei therapy has contained inflation and brought about the first quarterly primary surplus since 2008, but purchasing power is plummeting and the dollar is at an all-time record. Many people give up…
With London and Wall Street closed for holidays, European stock markets are rising cautiously, already projected on the inflation data due out during the week. In Milan utilities rebound, Stellantis rises awaiting the meeting with the unions. Lane…
Fourth consecutive session in decline for Piazza Affari with European stock markets losing ground while awaiting the Fed minutes and the Nvidia quarterly. Lagarde to Esma: "We need a capital market union". Oil prices continue to fall
Not even the positive data on inflation in the Eurozone supports European stock markets in the last session of the week. Piazza Affari limits losses thanks to MPS, BPM and Saipem
Piazza Affari is the only one moving positively at mid-session, thanks to the good performance of Bper Banca, MPS and Snam. The BTP/Bund spread falls below 130 basis points with Istat reporting slowing inflation in April
In Piazza Affari (+0,6%) boom for Interpump and strong progress for Tim, Terna and MPS
European stock markets are trimming their gains with an eye on US inflation. Piazza Affari in its fifth consecutive rising session still driven by the banks. The spread drops
Stock markets are cautious awaiting the update on US inflation on Wednesday, but the Ftse Mib does not stop
Stock markets cautious in the first session of the week waiting for US inflation which could provide indications on the Fed's next moves. Bff Bank rebounds in Milan. The spread is stable, oil prices rise slightly
The Argentine government has declared war on inflation, stimulating the opening of markets and the reduction of costs for businesses. A first positive step for Italian and global exports
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF MAY 2024 – Why has inflation stopped falling? And why will it come down? Are labor costs a threat to prices? Services are, for once, the engine of the economy: will manufacturing follow suit? There…
What does the economic future hold for us? Is inflation really under control? How to deal with the fall in raw materials? And what will be the fate of the dollar and the world stock markets? Tomorrow on FIRSTonline the Lancets of the economy by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca…
The Paris-based body sees good prospects for Italy in terms of inflation and the job market. Overall he sees cautious optimism globally with growth forecasts
The Fed's interest rates remain unchanged. President Jerome Powell explained that American inflation is still too high and that the path to reducing it "is uncertain" as rate cuts now become uncertain. We will see…
Despite the weak performance of the world economy and the risks linked to inflation and geopolitical conflicts, international financial markets show confidence, driven by the prospects of less restrictive monetary policies. The Bank of Italy financial stability report
While waiting for news from the Fed, the stock markets are focusing on macro data. Eurozone inflation was stable in April, while core inflation, which is fundamental for the ECB, fell. In the first quarter, GDP rose by 0,3%. In Milan on the…
In the latest episode of the podcast "Al 4° Piano", Kairos strategist Alessandro Fugnoli analyzes the behavior of the markets in times of war and draws conclusions for today
Meta's expenses for AI, the disappointing GDP of the US first quarter and inflation are weighing on Wall Street: in cascade, the American data are reflected in the European stock markets which close lower, except for London driven by the maxi offer for…
The economy remained weak in the first quarter of 2024 but is expected to strengthen in the coming months. Inflation is expected to remain stable before falling to 2% next year, despite the risk of a rise due to the war in…
In the 2023 annual report, the ECB underlined the consolidation of progress against inflation, attributing it to a total increase in interest rates of 200 basis points, with clear effects also on BTP yields
In the latest economic bulletin, Bank of Italy estimates inflation at 1,3% in 2024, loans to businesses intended for investments are decreasing, while in the private sector high profit margins absorb the recovery in wages
Saturday 13 April on FIRSTonline the new edition of Lancette dell'economia, the monthly economic analysis column edited by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi
If inflation continues to approach the objective, "it will be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction", the Governing Council puts it in black and white. Lagarde: "We don't commit in advance, but we decide meeting after meeting"
Data on US inflation yesterday worried the markets, dispelling expectations of a cut by the Fed. Today European stock markets are expected to show little movement. Bankers could benefit from the situation
Wall Street and the Nasdaq are suffering from the prospect of a postponement of Fed rates due to the trend in American inflation. Europe on the other hand is in a swing, but at the end of the afternoon Piazza Affari starts running with the banks on the shields
European markets ignore Fitch's rejection of China and focus on the USA. Piazza Affari on the rise with banks and cars, gold takes a breather, oil prices rise
European stock markets are seen moving positively today in anticipation of the ECB tomorrow. In Asia, Hong Kong shines thanks to the giant Alibaba. Fitch cuts China outlook
Investors' eyes are already focused on US inflation on Wednesday and the ECB meeting on Thursday. Milan among the best, oil falling, yield on the benchmark 10-year BTP rising
According to the Bank of Italy's new macroeconomic projections, inflation will record a sharp decline in 2024 thanks to the fall in energy and intermediate product prices. Employment is good
The fall in inflation in Europe raises hopes that the ECB will decide to cut rates, even if not before June. In Piazza Affari the banks shine but also Telecom Italia, Stellantis and Ferrari lose ground
Interview with Jakob de Haan, president of Suerf, one of the most important groups of central bankers, economists and financial managers – “It seems that the period of high inflation will soon be behind us” – “At the moment wage increases are the indicator…
On the occasion of the celebration in Rome of the 150th anniversary of the birth of Luigi Einaudi, the Governor recalls how Einaudi managed to reduce inflation without stifling growth, but even leading to the Italian miracle. The debt issue in Italy
In the latest economic bulletin, the ECB's governing council sees a brighter picture and says it is "ready to adapt all instruments to reach the inflation target of 2%. However, the risks for economic growth remain oriented towards the downside"
Italian BTPs enjoy the interest of investors and the Treasury continues to break collection records. About a third of the collection needs for 2024 have already been put into the farm
The stock market rise has been going on for 18 consecutive months and sooner or later the correction will come. In the last episode of the podcast Al 4° piano, Kairos strategist Alessandro Fugnoli explains how to behave
Piazza Affari, where MPS and the entire banking sector stand out, is among the best stock markets of the day in Europe but Wall Street also runs
In February, consumer prices in the United States increased by 0,4% compared to the previous month, above expectations, but stock markets continue to believe that the Fed will cut rates in June. Leonardo deflates in Milan
Anticipation is rising for the publication of US inflation data, scheduled for today. Oracle flies on Wall Street, in Milan eyes on Generali and Leonardo. Bitcoin conquers the London Stock Exchange
Almost all stock markets are in negative territory and in Piazza Affari Tim (-4,6%) is still suffering. On the other hand, Bitcoin is flying, now above the record level of 72 thousand billion dollars due to the green light from the London Stock Exchange
Markets with bated breath for the detection of American inflation on which the Fed's moves on rates will depend. Gold and Bitcoin are flying. Enel and Saipem are running in Piazza Affari
The inflation estimate for 2024 goes from 2,7% to 2,3%. Lagarde on rate cuts: "We will know more in April and much more in June." Stock markets up, government bonds down
Powell will speak to the Senate on Wednesday and Lagarde will speak at the ECB summit on Thursday but the weakness of the markets in Europe and America reveals that no one expects surprises on the rate cut which will not happen before June
Although the supply chain's turnover reached 52,6 billion, there was a contraction of -8,1% compared to 2022. France and Germany remain the top destinations for exports
The month of February ended with a collection of stock market records in America, Asia and Europe. The economic growth record belongs to India which rose by more than 2023% in the last three months of 8
Inflation as expected in America and slowing in France and Germany: the Frankfurt stock exchange and the Nasdaq are running. Saipem flies to Piazza Affari. Btp Valore is still on the rocks
Markets on standby but Europe is almost in positive territory, including Milan
The loss would actually have been 7,8 billion, but 6,6 billion was covered with the risk fund, which was thus eliminated.
Gentiloni: "Shipping costs +400% due to the Red Sea crisis", estimates for Italy in the EU average". Germany's GDP will grow less in 2024 (+0,3%), while Spain will do so (+1,7%). Inflation forecasts are improving
Losses around 1% for the ten-year Treasury but the yield rises to 4,33%, the highest in three months. The stock markets attempted a rebound today after yesterday's retreat but Arm leaves 20% on the ground
European and American stock markets are all in the red. Piazza Affari loses more than one percentage point but defends 31 thousand. American stock markets are doing worse
The stock markets are in negative territory awaiting US inflation, which is essential for understanding the Fed's direction. Wall Street futures are also down
The eyes of the stock markets are focused on US inflation, but in the meantime the push comes from Tokyo (+2,7%) which is galloping in the wake of Softbank's rally (+6%). Bitcoin exceeds 50 thousand dollars, the price of gas continues to decline
European stock markets are all up, while Wall Street is uncertain awaiting the inflation data. In Milan the banks are still positive, Saipem also on the shields
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF FEBRUARY 2024 – The Red Sea risks widening conflicts: does it also pose risks for inflation? Why hasn't the rise in rates slowed down economies too much? How will the ECB react to Eurozone weakness and…
Tomorrow on FIRSTonline the Lancette dell'economia, the historic column by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi, will answer the main questions on the near future of the Italian, European, American and Chinese economy
The monthly economic bulletin issued by the Frankfurt institute chaired by Lagarde. How much wars weigh on growth, the objective of a timely return of inflation to 2% and the alarm on vulnerable companies: "The highest number in Italy and Germany"
For 2023 growth drops to +0,6% but accelerates slightly this year%. "Forecasts worsened due to the deterioration of the international context"
According to a study by Bankitalia and Istat, the wealth of Italian families decreased in 2022, marking -1,7% in nominal terms and a strong -12,5% in real terms - Real estate is growing, financial assets are declining
A message that ECB President Christine Lagarde has been repeating for months now like a mantra: "Restrictive rates, as long as necessary" and relaunches a possible cut for summer 2024
Volatility could come from geopolitical tensions. Perissinotto: "The capitalization of interests will be the driver of performance"
The first economic bulletin of 2024: alarm following the Israel-Hamas war and the Houthi attacks due to delays in deliveries and rising costs, fashion and oil under the spotlight. Inflation: from 1,9 in 2024 to 1,7% in 2026
Not even the words of the ECB president today in Davos have stopped the pessimism of the markets, fueled by the news arriving from the Red Sea. The risk of recession pushes gas higher. Weak stocks and bonds
Speaking to the ABI executive, the governor of the Bank of Italy admitted that "we are in a phase of cyclical slowdown". In 2023 growth at +0,6-0,7%. "Banks in a positive phase" but beware of the risks